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The market does not seem to get yet that Fed stimulus notwithstanding social distancing of some sort will continue till 2023
This practically means:
This practically means:
1)
All service capacity will be reduced 30% (see HK)
Restaurants, bars, events, stadiums
With attendant revenue and job losses
Upstream impact: interior decorators, contractors and furnishings.
Also: seafood farmers
All service capacity will be reduced 30% (see HK)
Restaurants, bars, events, stadiums
With attendant revenue and job losses
Upstream impact: interior decorators, contractors and furnishings.
Also: seafood farmers
2)
Travel demand reduced 50%
Airlines, cruises, taxi, bus, tours
Upstream impact: banks who finance above, engineering firms, heavy industries
Travel demand reduced 50%
Airlines, cruises, taxi, bus, tours
Upstream impact: banks who finance above, engineering firms, heavy industries
3)
Value added will be much reduced as people consume more at home;
eat, exercise and socialize without intermediaries; compare prices digitally.
Consume more digital than ‘things’.
Value added will be much reduced as people consume more at home;
eat, exercise and socialize without intermediaries; compare prices digitally.
Consume more digital than ‘things’.
4)
Profitable industries that implicitly require human contact will slowly lose relevance and value: consulting, colleges, self improvements.
No one pays full price for webinars.
Profitable industries that implicitly require human contact will slowly lose relevance and value: consulting, colleges, self improvements.
No one pays full price for webinars.
5)
Service jobs require some basic skill.
Unlike logistics/delivery jobs.
Permanent Loss of skills for a generation of young people
Service jobs require some basic skill.
Unlike logistics/delivery jobs.
Permanent Loss of skills for a generation of young people
6)
Less optimism: less demand of ‘vice economy’ and resulting less income for “entrepreneurs”
Less optimism: less demand of ‘vice economy’ and resulting less income for “entrepreneurs”
7)
Above job losses compound loss of spending power to reduce capacity requirement (or jobs) in vicious circle
Above job losses compound loss of spending power to reduce capacity requirement (or jobs) in vicious circle
8)
IG bragging becomes passé
The IG Influencer (if that ever counts as a profession) is dead.
IG bragging becomes passé
The IG Influencer (if that ever counts as a profession) is dead.
9)
Divorces spike and results in lower discretionary spending ability
Divorces spike and results in lower discretionary spending ability
10)
3 months is torture
3 years is ‘habit’
In short:
Bye bye consumption economy
3 months is torture
3 years is ‘habit’
In short:
Bye bye consumption economy
