કેમ છો dear PM @narendramodi. Congratulations! You’ve got me confused on the May 3rd deadline. Today’s briefing is on that confusion.

BTW it's not just me okay, anyone who went through the hotspots lists circular & the containment plan are thoroughly confused. Good job1/n

The reason I suggested that you should have your plans ready & also read them before making grand national announcement earlier was precisely to avoid such confusions.

But if confusion and lack of transparency was the aim, then it was a job perfectly done, I guess. 2/n

See, you said that the lockdown is going to be extended till May 3rd.

Also that relaxations will be given to some districts (non-infected ones I assume) from April 20th. 3/n

The issue is this. The hotspot lists letter from @MoHFW_INDIA says that “Containment operation would be deemed over when there is no case reported in 28 days from an area after last case tests negative.”!!

Let us call this as the containment period. 4/n

What containment zones, buffer zones? Why should you care you ask?

Well, they are mentioned in your own containment plans dear PM.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/3ContainmentPlanforLargeOutbreaksofCOVID19Final.pdf and https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/Containmentplan02042020.pdf 5/n

Now one of the key aspects of containment operations you have mentioned in the containment plan for large outbreaks is perimeter control, to bring all vehicular transport to a halt. 6/n

Other mandatory steps mentioned in the containment plan include closure of schools, colleges, workplaces for an initial period of 28 days, cancellation of public transport, prohibition of people exiting and entering the zone etc. 7/n

As you know, even yesterday we had close to 1000 new cases. So, even if there are no cases from today, we are looking at least a couple of weeks to the tests turning negative & then another 28 days. That means containment period is 40-45 days at the least from the last case. 8/n

So, with the knowledge of this containment plan, one can safely assume that it will take at least a month & a half from the detection of last case in her district for the lockdown to end? And if a new case comes during that period, it would mean another 40-45 days from then. 9/n

Voila! We have made a plan for a perpetual lockdown cycle.

Or we are saying to the districts to stop detecting any new cases, or don’t report if detected or at least transport him to a neighbouring district to stay out of a lockdown. 10/n

Imagine the terror of that poor chap who may get detected positive on the 27th day. Well, better not to imagine. 11/n

When we say that we need zero positive detections for 28 days for a red-zone district to move to green zone, what we are saying is that we want an R0 of 0. But containment strategies are usually made to bring R0 down to less than 1. Not to zero. 12/n https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

Yes. As a prime minister you should know R0, Re etc. These are not usual times, and your grasp on the matter beyond polemics and motivational speeches is important.

So that you can question your officials on the pros & cons of the suggestions and plans they are giving. 13/n

For e.g. take the issue of migrant workers from Surat, Mumbai or Delhi. These are hotspot districts, seeing new cases.

Now when you say that you won’t lift perimeter control during containment period, you are effectively saying they can't go home for those many more days. 14/n

If this has been thought through, then communicate it.

Else I am sure you understand that people are getting restless, anxious & impatient.

And we will see more outbursts of poor into the streets.

Even more importantly we might not be able to deflect it every single time.15/n

Our exit plan should encourage the districts to detect, test & treat. Our exit plan should encourage districts to bring down R0 & improve recoveries. Let us not make it contingent on detecting zero cases. 16/n