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A whole lot of Mom and Pop gas stations have been royally fucked during all this
Especially the ones with big debt.
1. Gas they're selling today is going for less than the bill on last week's gas
2. Most of their customers are out of work
3. People are scared to leave home
Especially the ones with big debt.
1. Gas they're selling today is going for less than the bill on last week's gas
2. Most of their customers are out of work
3. People are scared to leave home
And if they manage to survive those three problems...
What happens when the price of gasoline stabilizes, climbs back up to "normal"?
Every next load they order will be significantly more expensive, and they won't have the revenue to cover it.
What happens when the price of gasoline stabilizes, climbs back up to "normal"?
Every next load they order will be significantly more expensive, and they won't have the revenue to cover it.
If you've only been selling $1K worth of product per day (gas, grocery, tobacco, alcohol all combined)
And the average gross margin of all product sold is 20% (which can be optimistic to say the very least)
You're taking in $1250 per day and only $250 of it is profit
...
And the average gross margin of all product sold is 20% (which can be optimistic to say the very least)
You're taking in $1250 per day and only $250 of it is profit
...
So you're making $250 per day or $1750 per week
Let's say gas is $1.299 on last load, goes up to $1.499 on next load
(Totally reasonable based on how fast it dropped)
Old load went for $11k, and new load will cost $13k
And they're paying a few hundred out of pocket guaranteed
Let's say gas is $1.299 on last load, goes up to $1.499 on next load
(Totally reasonable based on how fast it dropped)
Old load went for $11k, and new load will cost $13k
And they're paying a few hundred out of pocket guaranteed
All the above numbers are ofc pulled out of my ass but set to scale.
Stores don't just sell one load per week, usually. And many places are doing more than $1k sales per day.
But some aren't.
And those places are completely fucked if they've got extra bills from debts.
Stores don't just sell one load per week, usually. And many places are doing more than $1k sales per day.
But some aren't.
And those places are completely fucked if they've got extra bills from debts.
Moral of the thought experiment is this:
If you think some politician or "expert" can wave their magic authority wand and "Make Everything Normal Again"
You're harboring a delusion.
It isn't gonna happen.
If you think some politician or "expert" can wave their magic authority wand and "Make Everything Normal Again"
You're harboring a delusion.
It isn't gonna happen.
Worst case scenario, prices return to "normal" within the span of a week
It was 2.299 here. That's $20,691 for a trailer load loaded to the gills.
If a store goes thru 3 per week?
That's $60k+ expense IN A WEEK (just for gas) when they've made peanuts for over a month.
It was 2.299 here. That's $20,691 for a trailer load loaded to the gills.
If a store goes thru 3 per week?
That's $60k+ expense IN A WEEK (just for gas) when they've made peanuts for over a month.
Now add in the burden of debt
If you just bought a store for $800k even with a 25 year term @ that's $4.5k per month.
If you carry $20k in grocery that is on a revolving basis (not unreasonable - cigs and booze)
...
If you just bought a store for $800k even with a 25 year term @ that's $4.5k per month.
If you carry $20k in grocery that is on a revolving basis (not unreasonable - cigs and booze)
...
That's roughly $293,500 you'd have to turn over just to still own the land and building and have stock on shelves and gas in the ground at zero true profit.
That's before utilities, payroll, and any fees (licensing, taxes, etc) that fell during this period.
That's before utilities, payroll, and any fees (licensing, taxes, etc) that fell during this period.
So the scenario where everything just "goes back to normal"?
Yeah, no. That's actually the worst thing that could happen with regard to many small businesses.
But they can't survive doing what we're doing, either.
There ISN'T an easy fix where everything "resets".
Yeah, no. That's actually the worst thing that could happen with regard to many small businesses.
But they can't survive doing what we're doing, either.
There ISN'T an easy fix where everything "resets".
People are gonna have to go back to work eventually.
No, there won't be a zero risk. If you're higher risk, you'll still have to take precautions.
No, it won't be smooth. There's gonna be BIG lasting damage, whether it personally affects you or not.
No, there won't be a zero risk. If you're higher risk, you'll still have to take precautions.
No, it won't be smooth. There's gonna be BIG lasting damage, whether it personally affects you or not.
And the Best/Worst of it is this
The time to prep for this and minimize the damage to you personally is long past.
We're just watching each domino fall now.
If you're fucked, you're fucked. If you're fine, you're fine.
Most people are somewhere inbetween.
The time to prep for this and minimize the damage to you personally is long past.
We're just watching each domino fall now.
If you're fucked, you're fucked. If you're fine, you're fine.
Most people are somewhere inbetween.
I hope you're well.
I hope you've been well.
And if you have, I hope you continue to be well.
And if you haven't, that really sucks.
But reality doesn't give a damn, and the new days keep coming whether we are ready for them or not.
And we must LEARN from this.
I hope you've been well.
And if you have, I hope you continue to be well.
And if you haven't, that really sucks.
But reality doesn't give a damn, and the new days keep coming whether we are ready for them or not.
And we must LEARN from this.
