Ok, so let& #39;s play a thought experiment. We reopen, fully, on 5/1. Without widespread testing, adequate PPE, or any of the other underlying #covid19 issues addressed.
What happens next? https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1250457165611053056">https://twitter.com/brianstel...
What happens next? https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1250457165611053056">https://twitter.com/brianstel...
1. We have many, many, many more incidents like the one that resulted in the shutdown of our nation& #39;s largest pork processing plants (*200* workers sick).
We see accelerations in food shortages & supply chain dysfunction as a result.
https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/press-room/company-news/smithfield-foods-to-close-sioux-falls-sd-plant-indefinitely-amid-covid-19">https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/press-roo...
We see accelerations in food shortages & supply chain dysfunction as a result.
https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/press-room/company-news/smithfield-foods-to-close-sioux-falls-sd-plant-indefinitely-amid-covid-19">https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/press-roo...
2. We have many, many, many more incidents like the spread of infection within a funeral, a party, or a beach outing, as untested super-spreaders make their way through society .
We witness new "hot spots " spring up across the country. https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-coronavirus-superspreaders-20200412-3amxri45ijh2nmiics5e4n726e-story.html">https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavir...
We witness new "hot spots " spring up across the country. https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-coronavirus-superspreaders-20200412-3amxri45ijh2nmiics5e4n726e-story.html">https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavir...
3. We see #healthcare workers - who, remember, still don& #39;t have adequate protective equipment- sickened at an alarming rate. Aka, more alarming than currently. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/14/cdc-report-thousands-health-care-workers-infected-coronavirus/2988120001/">https://www.usatoday.com/story/new...
4. We see the virus race through at risk communities - the elderly, minorities, those with chronic disease - to an extent that will make our current infection & death rate laughable. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/coronavirus-risk-african-americans-tied-more-race-n1182146">https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/...
5. Oh yes and remember the hospitals in NYC & Detroit that were overwhelmed? That is coming for your community, too, if we suddenly stop the #SocialDistancing that is - truly - flattening the curve. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/...
6. Will it restart the travel industry?
Probably not.
Most major businesses will follow the science. I& #39;ve heard of multiple corporations that are telling their employees "no travel until summer" or even "no travel until 2021".
Probably not.
Most major businesses will follow the science. I& #39;ve heard of multiple corporations that are telling their employees "no travel until summer" or even "no travel until 2021".
7. Will it put kids back in school? Maybe. But many schools across the country end school on early May, anyhow.
Plus, who wants to be the administrator who invites this kind of headline: https://www.thedailybeast.com/liberty-university-student-sues-school-over-glacially-slow-covid-19-response">https://www.thedailybeast.com/liberty-u...
Plus, who wants to be the administrator who invites this kind of headline: https://www.thedailybeast.com/liberty-university-student-sues-school-over-glacially-slow-covid-19-response">https://www.thedailybeast.com/liberty-u...
8. Will it help small and large businesses to survive - staving off the economic collapse we all are living through?
I& #39;m not an economist, but the evidence points to "actually, saving lives is the best thing we can do" https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/">https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/0...
I& #39;m not an economist, but the evidence points to "actually, saving lives is the best thing we can do" https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/">https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/0...
8. Will it create "herd immunity", thereby protecting us from the next wave?
We don& #39;t even know how long (or whether) people become immune.
We don& #39;t know what % of the population has been exposed.
This idea, while attractive, would decimate us. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-4">https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-h...
We don& #39;t even know how long (or whether) people become immune.
We don& #39;t know what % of the population has been exposed.
This idea, while attractive, would decimate us. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-4">https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-h...
In conclusion: I& #39;m "just" an emergency doc & a #publichealth researcher.
But so far as I can see, this thought experiment of early, slipshod opening - without testing, without PPE, without data, without planning - is all risk and no upside. /fin
But so far as I can see, this thought experiment of early, slipshod opening - without testing, without PPE, without data, without planning - is all risk and no upside. /fin