Thread by @meganranney, Ok, so let's play a thought experiment. We reopen, fully, on 5/1. [...]

Ok, so let's play a thought experiment. We reopen, fully, on 5/1. Without widespread testing, adequate PPE, or any of the other underlying #covid19 issues addressed.

What happens next? https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1250457165611053056

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1250457165611053056

1. We have many, many, many more incidents like the one that resulted in the shutdown of our nation's largest pork processing plants (*200* workers sick).

We see accelerations in food shortages & supply chain dysfunction as a result.

https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/press-room/company-news/smithfield-foods-to-close-sioux-falls-sd-plant-indefinitely-amid-covid-19

2. We have many, many, many more incidents like the spread of infection within a funeral, a party, or a beach outing, as untested super-spreaders make their way through society .

We witness new "hot spots " spring up across the country. https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-coronavirus-superspreaders-20200412-3amxri45ijh2nmiics5e4n726e-story.html

Coronavirus superspreaders: Scientists race to find out why some people are more infectious than...

Those virus carriers at the heart of what are being called superspreading events can drive and have driven epidemics, researchers say. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/health/coronavirus-superspr...

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-coronavirus-superspreaders-20200412-3amxri45ijh2nmiics5e4n726e-story.html

3. We see #healthcare workers - who, remember, still don't have adequate protective equipment- sickened at an alarming rate. Aka, more alarming than currently. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/14/cdc-report-thousands-health-care-workers-infected-coronavirus/2988120001/

Thousands of health care workers sickened by COVID-19 and 27 dead, CDC report says

A new report from the CDC says more than 9,000 health care workers have contracted the coronavirus in the U.S.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/14/cdc-report-thousands-health-care-workers-infected-coronavirus/2988120001/

4. We see the virus race through at risk communities - the elderly, minorities, those with chronic disease - to an extent that will make our current infection & death rate laughable. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/coronavirus-risk-african-americans-tied-more-race-n1182146

Coronavirus risk for African Americans tied to more than race

Racial disparities around the virus are impossible to ignore, with African Americans seeing higher rates of hospitalization and of deaths.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/coronavirus-risk-african-americans-tied-more-race-n1182146

5. Oh yes and remember the hospitals in NYC & Detroit that were overwhelmed? That is coming for your community, too, if we suddenly stop the #SocialDistancing that is - truly - flattening the curve. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data/

How a surge of coronavirus patients could stretch hospital resources in your area

An analysis of U.S. hospital data shows why health officials are seeking more resources to treat coronavirus patients. See how resources in your area compare with the rest of the country.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data/

6. Will it restart the travel industry?

Probably not.

Most major businesses will follow the science. I've heard of multiple corporations that are telling their employees "no travel until summer" or even "no travel until 2021".

7. Will it put kids back in school? Maybe. But many schools across the country end school on early May, anyhow.

Plus, who wants to be the administrator who invites this kind of headline: https://www.thedailybeast.com/liberty-university-student-sues-school-over-glacially-slow-covid-19-response

Liberty University Student Sues School Over ‘Glacially Slow’ COVID-19 Response

The unidentified student is accusing the school and its president, Jerry Falwell Jr., of downplaying the coronavirus threat and putting students at risk.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/liberty-university-student-sues-school-over-glacially-slow-covid-19-response

8. Will it help small and large businesses to survive - staving off the economic collapse we all are living through?

I'm not an economist, but the evidence points to "actually, saving lives is the best thing we can do" https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/

Stop covid or save the economy? We can do both.

In the first employment report after social distancing measures had taken hold in many US states, the Department of Labor announced that 3.3 million people had filed jobless claims. A week later, in...

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/

8. Will it create "herd immunity", thereby protecting us from the next wave?

We don't even know how long (or whether) people become immune.

We don't know what % of the population has been exposed.

This idea, while attractive, would decimate us. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-4

Herd immunity is the only way the coronavirus pandemic will end — and it would require a vaccine....

"We're still a long way from herd immunity," Melinda Gates said. "And you can't count on that, because a lot of people are going to die."

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19-2020-4

In conclusion: I'm "just" an emergency doc & a #publichealth researcher.

But so far as I can see, this thought experiment of early, slipshod opening - without testing, without PPE, without data, without planning - is all risk and no upside. /fin

You can follow @meganranney.

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