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Let's talk about Bryce Harper. So many think he's awesome and a great player, but most of the time, they don't use his actual stats (especially in recent years), to defend their claim. Let's go into the stats and see how good he's actually been, both since 2012 and 2016.
Let’s talk about what Harper fans usually go to first: his hitting. Harper’s OPS+ (which adjusts for ballpark and year) since his rookie year is 137, which is really good. It ranks 18th out of 242 qualified hitters since 2012.
His oWAR (offensive WAR), WAR, and Batting Runs rank 12th, 15th, and 10th since he started in the MLB, which are nice rankings. Harper is good when it comes to accumulating stats. But there lies with problem with saying he’s awesome: Harper is more of an accumulator than star.
If you take Harper’s totals and divide by plate appearance, he starts to lose some of his luster. For example, his oWAR, WAR, and Batting Runs per plate appearance rank 29th, 20th, and 38th since 2012. Again, nice, but hardly fantastic.
A big thing Harper’s fans point to is his ceiling. It is true that in 2015, Harper had a phenomenal year. Out of 8,238 qualifying NL seasons, adjusted for era, Harper’s 2015 ranks 8th in OBP, 10th in Batting Runs, and 18th in OPS+. The dude was awesome.
The problem with that is 2015 has been his only great year out of eight full seasons, and it is an extreme outlier. His 9.7 WAR is 4.5 more than his next-highest year in 2012, and 4.9 more than his third-highest in 2017.
The problem with many when they think of Harper is that they remember 2015 and think “Well, he did it that year, so he has all-time potential. He can do it again.” The problem with that view is that he hasn’t shown any evidence of being that player in the four years since.
Since 2016, Harper has the following ranks in total oWAR, WAR, and Batting Runs: 30th, 50th, and 24th out of a total of 205 hitters that have accrued at least 1,000 plate appearances since then. All of those are well below his ranks if you count his first four years.
If you look at his rankings on a per plate appearance basis, he ranks 62nd, 100th, and 32nd in those rankings, again, well below his totals, which means he relies more on staying healthy (it’s largely a myth that he is uniquely injury-prone) than being amazingly when he plays.
The simple fact is that his production when he has played is simply not on the level of the better players in the game, especially over the last four years. He has basically been an above-average to good player since he came into the league, with the one exception being his 2015.
Harper was thought of as the best high school prospects ever when he was drafted back in 2010. He started full-time in the majors at age 19, and has been voted to six All-Star games. He’s one of the most recognizable players in baseball. And he’s also the most overrated.
