I bet that most places can reduce caseloads to manageable levels and implement #TestAndTrace by May 15. So if I had to bet on when shutdowns can start being lifted, that would be my bet. Maybe earlier in California and some other places, maybe later in NYC.

This is basically what the experts I've heard from have said.

Test-and-Trace systems are coming together fairly rapidly, with software becoming available, testing volume OK in many places, and big states recruiting workers. In a month I think we'll be ready...

But after lockdown is lifted, we'll have a few more months of caution. Everyone will wear masks, individual social distancing will continue, schools will be closed, big gatherings will be banned, people will sit far apart at restaurants, many will work from home.

A few places will have resurgent outbreaks and go back on lockdown for a while. Antibody tests will be universal and people with antibodies might be cleared to work in close quarters. States might impose interstate travel restrictions and screening/quarantine.

So if I had to predict, my best guess is:
1 more month of lockdowns
5 months of suppression and distancing
Treatment becomes available in the fall
Vaccine becomes available next year

But this is just what I hear on the grapevine.

(end)