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We have seen goal post moving in real time bc model projections have been wrong all along. It was sold to the American people that we must lockdown to "slow the spread." That means instead of having a steep slope where we& #39;re all infected quickly& strain healthcare system..
We have seen goal post moving in real time bc model projections have been wrong all along. It was sold to the American people that we must lockdown to "slow the spread." That means instead of having a steep slope where we& #39;re all infected quickly& strain healthcare system..
we "slow the spread" so healthcare systems can cope. No overloaded hospitals could save lives since all infected could be treated. (Hospitals have the opposite problem: tens of thousands of healthcare workers have been laid off bc of lockdown measures.) But stay with me...
This was never going to STOP the virus or LOWER the number of infections unless we were banking on a vaccine, which optimistically could take 18 months. So, economic/healthcare, etc. damage is unnecessary now bc we slowed it, right? No way we can justify lockdown?
Wrong! ....
Wrong! ....
There& #39;s a new goal post: we can STOP the virus by staying in lockdown until July, says ever-wrong White House modeler Christopher Murray. Huh? This doesn& #39;t add up. (Read: Spin bc I messed up the model)
To confirm the was not the case, here& #39;s Dr. Drew Harris on NPR, March 11...
To confirm the was not the case, here& #39;s Dr. Drew Harris on NPR, March 11...
(Harris also spoke to NYT, he& #39;s a MSM fav, & an EXPERT!) Okay, so here he is on "flattening the curve."
NPR host: "There& #39;s this red curve that& #39;s really tall & really steep ... then there& #39;s a blue curve that& #39;s more gently sloped up, & then there& #39;s this gradual, long slope down."
NPR host: "There& #39;s this red curve that& #39;s really tall & really steep ... then there& #39;s a blue curve that& #39;s more gently sloped up, & then there& #39;s this gradual, long slope down."
Harris: "The red curve is showing us that we are seeing a significant number of cases in a very short period of time. If you think of the -our health care system as a subway car- and it& #39;s rush hour, and everybody wants to get on the car once, so they start piling up at the door..
"They pile up on the platform.There& #39;s just not enough room in the car to take care of everybody, to accommodate everybody. That& #39;s the first curve, if you will. That& #39;s the system that is overwhelmed. It just can& #39;t handle it, and people wind up not getting services that they need."
"If we, instead, spread out those cases so that everybody on that subway car doesn& #39;t show up at the same time but, instead, shows up at different times, then that car can accommodate the right number of people but over a longer period of time."
"So the whole idea is to flatten that curve, make sure that not everybody shows up at an emergency department door at the same time."
NPR:"But to take your metaphor of the subway one step further, you& #39;re assuming w this flatter curve that people will still need to get on subway."
NPR:"But to take your metaphor of the subway one step further, you& #39;re assuming w this flatter curve that people will still need to get on subway."
Harris: "Right. Just today, Angela Merkel announced that they& #39;re expecting that 60-, 70% of Germans will be getting - coming down with this virus. But if they all came down with it at the same time, the net system is overwhelmed."
NPR: "Right."
In other words, DELAYING INFECTION.
NPR: "Right."
In other words, DELAYING INFECTION.
"And we& #39;re seeing that in Italy ... But if, instead,you can delay that time when you get that virus a few days later or a few weeks later, a few months later, then the system can adjust&accommodate all the people who are possibly going to get sick & possibly need hospital care."
Only caveat: "It is possible that we will see fewer cases because you& #39;re less likely to be exposed to the disease any particular time" "maybe that time will be so far in the future we& #39;ll have a vaccine, in which case you& #39;ll be protected against the virus in the first place."
Here& #39;s everything Harris said simplified in LiveScience: "A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time....
"A slower infection rate means less stressed healthcare system, fewer hospital visits on any given day & fewer sick people being turned away." https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html">https://www.livescience.com/coronavir...
The new standard from Murray is NOT what we& #39;ve been told from the outset; and not what Imperial modeling said (still under lock & key!)
There is no reason to continue drastic econ/social damage if hospitals are not overrun. Note: good hygiene, some social distance is NOT lockdown
There is no reason to continue drastic econ/social damage if hospitals are not overrun. Note: good hygiene, some social distance is NOT lockdown
