1) We've been hearing that #Sweden is supposedly doing well without a substantial lockdown. This depends on how we define "well". The graph shows weekly deaths for all ages in 2020 compared to the average deaths in 2015-2019. By week 14/April 5, deaths in 2020 were up ~20%.

2) This excess mortality is driven by the older and more vulnerable age groups 65-79 and 80+ years. The graphs show the weekly deaths in comparison to 2019. Deaths in the age group 65-79 are up by ~30% in 2020 compared to 2019 in the most recent calendar week.

3) Note that 2019 and 2015-2019 had been less lethal than 2020 for several early weeks before #coronavirus became a thing. These data are not from hotspots, but country-wide. The original file can be found at @StatsSweden: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/#_Tablesandgraphs

4) Do we know the excess mortality is entirely due to #COVID19? No. Do we know it would have been lower with a severe lockdown? No. But the excess mortality has been there in recent weeks and it is substantial. Looking forward to an update of the date.

Thread: Not sure Sweden is doing all that great in terms of excess mortality, @wwwojtekk @Noahpinion @tylercowen @willchamberlain @BachmannRudi @EconTalker.