The markets have gone from pricing in an economic freefall with intensifying financial stresses and exponential infection rates a few weeks ago to having better visibility on the depth of the recession and the timing of a recovery as risks have eased.

But that was the easy part.

Markets must now nervously await signs of the shape of the recovery. It will be weeks before we know how the re-openings are going in Austria, Denmark, and Norway that start this week. China’s re-opening has been V-shaped, so far, but may not be representative or sustainable.

Watching high-frequency data like rush hour traffic, weekend box office receipts, overnight shipping volumes, air pollution levels, and new virus cases are key as the staged re-openings unfold. I'll keep you posted.