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Anthony Martial’s 11 goals in the league so far this season are a far better achievement than he’s credited for. (a thread analyzing xG)
This thread uses the total expected goals metric (xG) which @OptaPro applies to combine variables such as pass type, angle/distance, and whether or not a chance is a big chance, to determine how many goals should be expected from a player.
According to the xG stat, Martial has outperformed his expected goals (9.70) by 1.30 having scored 11 which is not only impressive, but highlights the lack of quality chances afforded to him.
Of players with his goal tally or more in the league, Martial has the 2nd lowest expected goals at 9.70. Even Southampton’s (11th in the league) Danny Ings, sits on more expected goals which goes to show just how starved a striker Martial is chance-wise.
Ranking the league xG wise, Martial’s expected goals make him come in 18th place, meaning that according to xG, he’s supposed to be 18th highest scorer. This is severely a low place which goes to show just how impressive him being tied 7th highest goal score in the league is.
Martial outperforms his xG by 1.30, the 6th highest rate amongst players with his goal tally or more, and 3rd best amongst the current top 6 strikers, making him on of the league’s most lethal strikers this season.
Many will point to the fact that Rashford has a higher xG, to downplay Martial’s lack of chances, however, Rashford’s non penalty expected goals (9.35 NPxG), is roughly same as Martial’s (9.30 NPxG) and he’s only over performing it by 0.78, compared to Martial’s 2.06.
In fact, only Kane, Aubameyang, and Ings are outperforming their NPxG at a higher rate than Martial’s amongst players with Martial’s goal tally or more.
Often compared to strikers such as Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus, and Tammy Abraham, Martial overperforms his xG and NPxG at a higher rate than all three.
Interesting enough, both Firmino and Jesus are the biggest under performers in the league regarding that category.
Creativity behind a CF, is the biggest factor that highly affects xG. With more big chances created, a strikers xG goes higher. Hence the dire need for competent creators which Martial didn’t have for most of the season till Bruno’s arrival.
Regardless of your opinion on Martial, evidence clearly shows he’s actually done better than he was supposed to goal scoring wise. With a competent manager and more adequate recruitment, moving forward he should have the one of the highest outputs in the league. End of thread.
