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1) Ok I& #39;ve figured out why $PXD Sheffield is begging for TX RRC to prorate producers and walk in crude. All about NGL& #39;s and how he& #39;s trying to unload bad assets same as Hamm just not as far along. Lot of insider sales also. Copied in my hero @WillRayValentin let& #39;s begin.
2) US shale new oil per frac spread. You can see high grading 16/17 produced more oil and is now in a slow descent. All shale producers are on the clock including $PXD. Assets wear out real quick these are not long range companies.
3) Chart below is $PXD GOR at varying intervals. You can see the dip in 17 and the increase in 18/19. Get& #39;s worse.
4) Rate of change in GOR at $PXD is picking up. I calc this from shaleprofile taking month 1 & 12 from each year and compare the delta between the two. My belief is we& #39;re now stretching into lower grade assets.
5) From $PXD earnings. This is where we start cutting into meat. NGL& #39;s are picking up strongly again encompassing a lot more on the BOE price capture than 1-2 years ago. Some of this is conventional assets dropping off but much appears to be shale driven with GOR accel.
6) Mont Belvieu Propane Spot pricing. Issue began in 18. A walk-in alleviates this bottleneck allowing adequate pricing to return. This I believe to be the motivation. Poor NGL pricing is going to crush $PXD earnings permanently.
7) $PXD stock is held up relatively favorably thru 750mil in stock buybacks/dividends now gone. All the drilling in 19 goes directly into debt or production losses most likely a large mix.
