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1) Ok I've figured out why $PXD Sheffield is begging for TX RRC to prorate producers and walk in crude. All about NGL's and how he's trying to unload bad assets same as Hamm just not as far along. Lot of insider sales also. Copied in my hero @WillRayValentin let's begin.
2) US shale new oil per frac spread. You can see high grading 16/17 produced more oil and is now in a slow descent. All shale producers are on the clock including $PXD. Assets wear out real quick these are not long range companies.
3) Chart below is $PXD GOR at varying intervals. You can see the dip in 17 and the increase in 18/19. Get's worse.
4) Rate of change in GOR at $PXD is picking up. I calc this from shaleprofile taking month 1 & 12 from each year and compare the delta between the two. My belief is we're now stretching into lower grade assets.
5) From $PXD earnings. This is where we start cutting into meat. NGL's are picking up strongly again encompassing a lot more on the BOE price capture than 1-2 years ago. Some of this is conventional assets dropping off but much appears to be shale driven with GOR accel.
6) Mont Belvieu Propane Spot pricing. Issue began in 18. A walk-in alleviates this bottleneck allowing adequate pricing to return. This I believe to be the motivation. Poor NGL pricing is going to crush $PXD earnings permanently.
7) $PXD stock is held up relatively favorably thru 750mil in stock buybacks/dividends now gone. All the drilling in 19 goes directly into debt or production losses most likely a large mix.
