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The 
testing response to the Coronavirus pandemic has not been flawless.
This is not a complete surprise given the international scramble for the bits it takes to get a BIG testing system up & running overnight. 1/9
testing response to the Coronavirus pandemic has not been flawless. This is not a complete surprise given the international scramble for the bits it takes to get a BIG testing system up & running overnight. 1/9
However, examining the countries we're looking at on #COVIDWATCHIRL, and up to date (13-4-20) data, we can see how we're doing..
We're doing the most tests & have detected 2nd most cases [per million population]... 2/9
![However, examining the countries we're looking at on #COVIDWATCHIRL, and up to date (13-4-20) data, we can see how we're doing.. We're doing the most tests & have detected 2nd most cases [per million population]... 2/9](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVqaEB3XsAEQAti.png "However, examining the countries we're looking at on #COVIDWATCHIRL, and up to date (13-4-20) data, we can see how we're doing.. We're doing the most tests & have detected 2nd most cases [per million population]... 2/9")
We're doing the most tests & have detected 2nd most cases [per million population]... 2/9
That mightn't sound great but better the devil you know.
This is another way of showing the same testing data.
A high propensity to testing (e.g. South Korea, where they do nearly 50 tests to find 1 positive case) has to lead to a better picture of where virus is active. 3/9
This is another way of showing the same testing data.
A high propensity to testing (e.g. South Korea, where they do nearly 50 tests to find 1 positive case) has to lead to a better picture of where virus is active. 3/9
You can see large variance here when it comes to case fatality rate (CFR = deaths/total cases, displayed in %).
We know it's the same virus, but remember it hurts older populations more and different countries have different healthcare systems with more/less ICU capacity 4/9
We know it's the same virus, but remember it hurts older populations more and different countries have different healthcare systems with more/less ICU capacity 4/9
But some of these differences in CFR must also be due to the fact some countries aren't testing that much in the community (see 1st graph). So their number of cases is falsely low, which makes the calculation (deaths/total cases) higher than it should be in reality... 5/9
We want a low CFR as:
i) we want less premature deaths from COVID-19
ii) CFR = deaths/total cases, so a bigger number on the bottom of the equation makes CFR lower. But having lots of cases detected also means you probably have a better handle on where the virus is active. 6/9
i) we want less premature deaths from COVID-19
ii) CFR = deaths/total cases, so a bigger number on the bottom of the equation makes CFR lower. But having lots of cases detected also means you probably have a better handle on where the virus is active. 6/9
And if we know about it, we have a chance to shut it down.
Thanks to all those working to get our testing system up to scratch, from GP colleagues to @HealthlinkIrl to testing centre staff to lab teams to public health teams and all the way back down again to the patient. 7/9
Thanks to all those working to get our testing system up to scratch, from GP colleagues to @HealthlinkIrl to testing centre staff to lab teams to public health teams and all the way back down again to the patient. 7/9
Getting tests done & reported back to patients quickly & contact tracing effectively clearly still needs some work, but we're making progress.
If we want to "Trace, Test, Treat" we'll need it all running smoothly. 8/9
If we want to "Trace, Test, Treat" we'll need it all running smoothly. 8/9
And thanks to all hospital staff giving patients their best shot with this nasty disease when things escalate.
Sincere condolences to those who've lost loved ones already, hopefully as a country we can minimise the damage COVID-19 will do to other patients and families. 9/9
Sincere condolences to those who've lost loved ones already, hopefully as a country we can minimise the damage COVID-19 will do to other patients and families. 9/9
