Starting a new thread for post-election analysis.

Disclosure: I'm about as big a Democratic Party homer for S Korea as they come. And I thought the over-under for the Dems should be about 145 seats. If you told me Dems would win 155 last night I would have been over the moon.

Right now the Dems are projected to win 178 seats.

I had to re-look at the sentence because I can't believe it. That's like saying "Joe Biden is projected to carry 46 out of 50 states including Texas." Just typing that out feels insane.

Full projection (out of 300 seats)

Dem: 178-179
UFP: 101-102
Justice: 5-6
People's: 4-5
Open Dem: 3
Independents: 5

Open Dem is a new party created by former Dem party members who lost their primaries - which means there is solid likelihood that they will come back to the Dem fold - at which point the Dems will cross over the 180 seats (=3/5) threshold. https://twitter.com/AskAKorean/status/1250496167747760129

Obviously, this is a massive victory for Moon Jae-in. S Korean presidents serve a single 5-year term, which means lame duck always visits the president in the later part of the presidency. But in his third year, Moon is getting a historic boost.

What's more impressive though is the quality of the Dem victory. Liberals in S Korea always fought from a disadvantage - what's commonly referred to as the "tilted field." When they win, they win by either (1) allying with moderate conservatives and/or (2) intra-cons split.

But not this time. The U in UFP stands for "United." Conservatives fixed the rift caused by Park Geun-hye's impeachment and formed a single front. The turnout was the highest in 16 years for a mid-term election. This was a total war. Each side brought out everything they got.

A big landslide like this usually happens when the wavering voters from one of the sides stay home because they are not motivated to vote. This is how the conservatives got their biggest victory ever (=153 seats) in 2008 - because the liberals stayed home.