The #Covid19UK figures for deaths today are extremely promising. I had expected there might be a correction, following the Easter weekend, and indeed we did see this in the Wales figures. But the UK figure is lower than yesterday, at 761 (total now 12868). 1/7

This probably represents a small correction as, I suspect, did yesterday's figure (the previous two days had been a little lower). But the trend is very clearly down. It's a long time ago since I predicted the peak on or around Good Friday (10th), and it's looking like I was 2/7

spot on. In the charts, note that the rate of increase of deaths continues to fall, and is now down to just over 6%. For such a trend to reverse, whilst all the current measures are in place, would be extraordinary. But we need to get these figures right down. 3/7

People are of course asking "when will the lockdown be lifted". The government seems not to have a plan. Well, here's the only workable plan: these figures need to be reduced to almost zero, and widespread testing must be in place. That way, test-isolate-isolate contacts can 4/7

prevent another peak. Certain travel restrictions will still be needed though, until a vaccine is produced (especially from countries where there is still an ongoing outbreak). If that means waiting until there is enough capacity for such testing, then so be it. 5/7

From the point of view of the economy, antibody testing (has someone had Covid) can allow people to get back to a normal life; the so-called immunity passport. 6/7

This would easily pay back its cost. Admittedly there are still questions about how long immunity lasts, but this question should be answered fairly soon as the data roll in. 7/7