This is one of the best pieces I have read on what went wrong with risk assessments in the run-up to this pandemic. (Disclosure, I'm praised in it but not in a usual way—talks about something I worried about but did not happen.) https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/

This is my beef with the media prediction industry. Prediction in societies (complex systems) may never be precise enough—coupled, correlated risk; reflexivity; non-linear dynamics; too many variables+unknowns. We get "scientism" instead of using models/predictions as warnings.

Yep. I wrote about that in my piece about epidemiological models (they are not predictions per se; they are warnings). https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ https://twitter.com/lostintaut/status/1250599710336839680