We're flattening the curve in
@SanDiegoCounty because #SocialDistancingWorks! I fit exponentials to county data: Currently we are on a much better path than on 3/27, before #SocialDistanacing and
@CAgovernor @GavinNewsom's stay at home order could have an impact. Thread 1/8

Stay at home order began 3/19. It takes about 1 week after infection to feel ill, so decrease in COVID cases due to quarantine starts after 3/26. The graph above shows it was another week after that before the curve bends: testing delays are at least part of that. Thread 2/8

That last plot had a log scale y-axis, if you prefer the linear version here it is. As you can see in a few days the difference between our old path and our current one is going to get very large! #SocialDistancingWorks! Thread 3/8

Without #SocialDistanacing and the stay at home orders:

San Diego county would probably have about 4400 more #COVIDー19 cases today!

We would probably have about 1300 more people in hospital with the disease than we do right now!

Thread 4/8

The encouraging COVID projections above are happening because recently the case counts show much longer doubling times! It's now taking ~19 days for COVID-19 cases to double in number, compared with 3.5 days back in March. Thread 5/8

Doubling time is also increasing for COVID hospitalizations. I prefer this metric because it's probably less undercounted than case numbers, and because it directly impacts the quality of care and the survivability of patients: More patients than beds is bad news. Thread 6/8

Caution: While the curve is flattening, it is still important that we keep #SocialDistancing and wearing #Masks4All. We could easily return to steep increases and our neighboring areas are having a worse time of it. So stay classy San Diego! We are doing it!! Thread 7/8

The data (scraped from San Diego county website) and methods to make these graphs, and some others, can be seen and reused at https://github.com/jasongfleischer/SanDiegoCountyCOVID19 (end of thread!)