Read on Twitter
My op-ed is out in today's print edition of the @guardian - Why is coronavirus killing so many more people in the UK than Ireland?
I have some additional thoughts to follow up – the biggest of which is: it's so much worse than I thought. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-uk-ireland-delay
I have some additional thoughts to follow up – the biggest of which is: it's so much worse than I thought. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-uk-ireland-delay
I said in my original thread that the death toll in the UK was double that in Ireland.
It's not.
It's almost three and a half times higher.
It's not.
It's almost three and a half times higher.
As many of you pointed out, the Irish daily death toll includes deaths in nursing homes and in the community.
The UK daily figures, issued by the Department of Health, do not.
The UK daily figures, issued by the Department of Health, do not.
To compare like with like, let's compare in-hospital deaths only.
Per the press conference on 13 April, of the 365 deaths from coronavirus in Ireland to that date, 247 deaths had taken place in hospital. https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0413/1130268-irish-covid-figures/
Per the press conference on 13 April, of the 365 deaths from coronavirus in Ireland to that date, 247 deaths had taken place in hospital. https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0413/1130268-irish-covid-figures/
The comparative figure for the UK on that date was 11,329 deaths - 'of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus'.
(Per https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public)
(Per https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public)
Calculated that way, there were 5 deaths per 100,000 people in Ireland by 13 April, and 17 deaths per 100,000 in the UK.
17/5 = 3.4.
In which case, the death toll in the UK is 3.4 times higher.
17/5 = 3.4.
In which case, the death toll in the UK is 3.4 times higher.
I'm so sorry. It's absolutely horrifying.
Comparisons between countries are difficult. It might seem logical that population density factors into this, and it's a fair question. Ireland has 72 people per sq km, UK has 281 people per sq km.
But that doesn't capture the whole picture. Pop density of Dublin is 4,588/km2, London is 5,666/km2. Barcelona is 16,000/km2. Dublin and London are more comparable than you might think.
@daraobriain expressed it pretty neatly below (thanks Dara). https://twitter.com/daraobriain/status/1249251852979445765
@daraobriain expressed it pretty neatly below (thanks Dara). https://twitter.com/daraobriain/status/1249251852979445765
Pop density of *Greater* London is higher than greater Dublin area. But 39% of the population of Ireland live in Dublin metropolitan area, whereas 16% of population of England live in Greater London.
This thread by @Care2much18 has excellent analysis. https://twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1248496317568974857
This thread by @Care2much18 has excellent analysis. https://twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1248496317568974857
Put bluntly, the population of Ireland is piled to the east of the country, and we're highly networked.
And the people who *don't* live or work in Dublin regularly come into contact with the people who do.
All of which will work against us in a pandemic.
And the people who *don't* live or work in Dublin regularly come into contact with the people who do.
All of which will work against us in a pandemic.
I would add that a more intimate population density figure feels important: how many people are sharing your home?
Household transmission has been an important part of this outbreak. Average household size in UK is 2.4; average household size in Ireland is 2.75.
Household transmission has been an important part of this outbreak. Average household size in UK is 2.4; average household size in Ireland is 2.75.
It doesn't seem like much, but on the exponential curve of a coronavirus transmission, I suspect it makes itself known.
2.4^10 = 6,340
2.75^10 = 24,735
(Epidemiologists, weigh in! I'd love to hear from ye on this)
2.4^10 = 6,340
2.75^10 = 24,735
(Epidemiologists, weigh in! I'd love to hear from ye on this)
I'd also note that the @FinancialTimes found only a weak relationship (so far) between population density (or # of urban areas in a country) with the pace of covid-19 outbreak.
Do you know what had a strong relationship?
Lockdown timing. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821717641531392
Do you know what had a strong relationship?
Lockdown timing. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821717641531392
And that gets to the crux of the matter, for me.
I absolutely agree with everyone who's been raising the multitudinous differences between the UK and Ireland: on age profile, exposure to intl transport links esp via London, clusters of severe poverty & vulnerable groups.
I absolutely agree with everyone who's been raising the multitudinous differences between the UK and Ireland: on age profile, exposure to intl transport links esp via London, clusters of severe poverty & vulnerable groups.
Any emigrant (myself included, once!) will tell you: Ireland and the UK are not the same.
And: if the UK was more vulnerable than Ireland, you should have closed down EARLIER than us, not later.
Those differences? Means that 2 weeks of delays hurt you MORE. It mattered MORE.
And: if the UK was more vulnerable than Ireland, you should have closed down EARLIER than us, not later.
Those differences? Means that 2 weeks of delays hurt you MORE. It mattered MORE.
It was deeply painful to watch. I've said it before: I've lived for swathes of my adult life in the UK. I have deep connections there, and people who I love with all my heart still live there.
And I was terrified for them.
And I was terrified for them.
In those 2 weeks, I was ringing my loved ones in the UK & begging them to please, please ignore their government's advice. To follow Irish government guidelines instead.
It was agonising.
It was agonising.
Do you know how terrible it is to tell someone to not trust their government in a crisis?
Especially vulnerable people, who need to feel safe? Who deserve to know that their government's plans will protect them?
It was awful. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.
Especially vulnerable people, who need to feel safe? Who deserve to know that their government's plans will protect them?
It was awful. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.
Those two weeks. THAT'S the emotional core of what made me sit down, on Saturday night, and pour this all out on Twitter.
. @brittajewell drives it home in her new piece with @NP_Jewell - 'An estimated 90 percent of the cumulative deaths in the U.S. from Covid-19... might have been prevented by putting social distancing policies into effect two weeks earlier.'
Two weeks. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/covid-social-distancing.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur
Two weeks. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/covid-social-distancing.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur
Time matters in a pandemic. You have to intervene early.
@profhelenward makes clear that scientists in the UK were asking the UK govt to act. Meanwhile 'tens, if not hundreds of thousands' of people were infected in the UK in those lost days in March https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/uk-government-coronavirus-science-who-advice
@profhelenward makes clear that scientists in the UK were asking the UK govt to act. Meanwhile 'tens, if not hundreds of thousands' of people were infected in the UK in those lost days in March https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/uk-government-coronavirus-science-who-advice
I'm not saying that the Irish government response is perfect.
I *am* pointing out the massive gap between what we were being told in March, by the Irish government, and what people in the UK were being told in March by theirs.
That gap cost lives.
I *am* pointing out the massive gap between what we were being told in March, by the Irish government, and what people in the UK were being told in March by theirs.
That gap cost lives.
I've heard it said that the relationship between Ireland and the UK is a one-way mirror. I wanted to smash it.
I want you to know what we knew.
During a pandemic, we need clear data, transparency, and accountability.
I want you to know what we knew.
During a pandemic, we need clear data, transparency, and accountability.
We have the power to hold both of our governments to account. We still have power to shape what the future looks like – for ourselves, for each other, and for the people that we love in both countries.
