1/4

It seems SA govt is considering increasing the Old Age Pension (OAP) *instead* of the Child Support Grant (CSG). This would be a *terrible mistake*.

As these graphs show, CSG is much better targeted to extremely poor, and covers hholds with informal workers much better

2/4

The red+blue is much smaller for OAP than CSG - showing that CSG reaches *way* more household members.

Green is also much bigger for OAP than CSG - for CSG, the red is really big instead. This shows that CSG covers households with informal workers pretty well - OAP doesn't.

3/4

You can see difference also by looking at effects on extreme poverty. For R500 topup separately to each grant, CSG reduces lockdown poverty dramatically, while OAP does little.

Same applies if you allocate same total spending (R6 billion) to each grant. CSG does much better

4/4

The takeaway is that if you're choosing between CSG and OAP, the Child Support Grant is a *much better immediate intervention*. Of course CSG still leaves gaps, which the OAP, and/or a new grant, could help fill.

But increasing OAP *instead* of CSG would be terrible error.

5/4 If these graphs are a bit unclear we describe how to read them in article below.

The graphs in this thread were created by @ihsaanbassier and myself (mainly Ihsaan), but are part of broader work with @MurrayLeibbrand @VimalRanchhod & @roccozizzamia https://theconversation.com/south-africa-can-and-should-top-up-child-support-grants-to-avoid-a-humanitarian-crisis-135222