1/ I wanted to add a couple of thoughts about COVID and computer modelling because I think people misinterpret the thrust of my skepticism. First, it is OK that computer models suck -- we are to some extent in terra nova here and the data we have is awful

2/ It is also OK to be decisive when hard decisions have to be made in real time even lacking good data or scientific input. Good leaders are often forced to make tough calls based on inadequate information.

3/ The military's theory on this was explained to me thus: "Make a decision. If its right, so much the better."

4/ I have written about this before, but unfortunately the political process does not really encourage politicians to make the best tradeoffs for the public in this sort of situation -- the incentives are for them to protect themselves from criticism first and foremost

5/ In this case, as I explained in a separate thread, that has generally meant governors have gone all the way into full shutdowns even in states with whole swathes that don't have a single case.

6/ So what I object to is not that the models are wrong, but that media & politicians are fetishizing them to provide cover for their decision-making and political calculation as "driven by science."

7/ What is really bad in this is that by pretending the decision was based on more data and "science" than it really was, a lot of the critical things you want to see in a situation with decision-making based on limited information are not happening

8/ For example, if we acknowledged our containment efforts were mere best guesses based on bad information, rather than "demanded by science", we would be investing a hell of a lot more in systematic data collection and analysis

9/ We would also be revisiting and questioning our containment decisions every day and modifying them based on new learning and facts. Instead we have developed a near religion around lockdowns being the only alternative because the models say so.

10/ We talk about federalism and the 50 states being a laboratory where different approaches are tried, but in this case media pressure and political incentives drove us to 50 identical solutions, even though all the states are in really different situations

11/ This is supposedly because of "science" but in fact allowing no room for experimentation and doing nothing to tailor solutions to different environments and situations is the opposite of science