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@MeckCounty and @AtriumHealth should disclose details of their epidemiological modeling. I've requested this data from both without much success, even though public records law requires disclosure from each of them.
On Mar 23, @AtriumHealth gave @MeckCounty this model with 30% distancing. It predicted almost 1,000 COVID hospitalizations in #CLT (not cases) by now, on the way to a peak just under 5,000. Count is only 431 statewide @ today; only 86 at last report from @AtriumHealth.
On April 5, @AtriumHealth reduced projection about 40%. Projected peak COVID beds of about 3,000 (red) on top of regular bed census (green). Expected not to exceed surged capacity.
Friday eve (4/10), @AtriumHealth sent me limited data on modeling after 3 weeks requesting. Told me I couldn't share as was "EMBARGOED," even tho is a public record. Reflects another 30% drop in expected local COVID beds -- 1517, and worst-case 2,576
Shown on graph (green), takes total projected bed count peak (incl non-COVID) to below 5,000, well within existing capacity
Trend is consistent with @IHME_UW model but orders of magnitude higher in total. @IHME_UW now projects -- statewide -- peak COVID beds of only 713. Yet, twice-reduced @AtriumHealth projection still anticipates over 1500 in #CLT alone.
Then, last night, @MeckCounty briefed commissioners with this graph, projecting peak COVID beds of 5,500 in #CLT alone by mid-May, even with social distancing.
@AtriumHealth and @MeckCounty need to show details and explain the contradictions to maintain public confidence and cooperation. Let's protect public safety, even build surge beds, but reasonable and consistent data is essential.
