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@MeckCounty and @AtriumHealth should disclose details of their epidemiological modeling. I& #39;ve requested this data from both without much success, even though public records law requires disclosure from each of them.
On Mar 23, @AtriumHealth gave @MeckCounty this model with 30% distancing. It predicted almost 1,000 COVID hospitalizations in #CLT (not cases) by now, on the way to a peak just under 5,000. Count is only 431 statewide @ today; only 86 at last report from @AtriumHealth.
On April 5, @AtriumHealth reduced projection about 40%. Projected peak COVID beds of about 3,000 (red) on top of regular bed census (green). Expected not to exceed surged capacity.
Friday eve (4/10), @AtriumHealth sent me limited data on modeling after 3 weeks requesting. Told me I couldn& #39;t share as was "EMBARGOED," even tho is a public record. Reflects another 30% drop in expected local COVID beds -- 1517, and worst-case 2,576
Shown on graph (green), takes total projected bed count peak (incl non-COVID) to below 5,000, well within existing capacity
Trend is consistent with @IHME_UW model but orders of magnitude higher in total. @IHME_UW now projects -- statewide -- peak COVID beds of only 713. Yet, twice-reduced @AtriumHealth projection still anticipates over 1500 in #CLT alone.
Then, last night, @MeckCounty briefed commissioners with this graph, projecting peak COVID beds of 5,500 in #CLT alone by mid-May, even with social distancing.
@AtriumHealth and @MeckCounty need to show details and explain the contradictions to maintain public confidence and cooperation. Let& #39;s protect public safety, even build surge beds, but reasonable and consistent data is essential.
