Thread by @TomChivers, looked back at 1st thing I wrote about COVID, in Jan. Headline [...]

looked back at 1st thing I wrote about COVID, in Jan. Headline "coronavirus will not be the next Black Death", which is true but kind of downplay-y. I *think* the piece itself sort of stands the test of time, but mainly by not making any predictions at all https://unherd.com/thepost/chinas-coronavirus-will-not-be-the-next-black-death/

China's coronavirus will not be the next Black Death - The Post

In 2013, an outbreak of Ebola, the deadly haemorrhagic fever, arose in Guinea. Within two years it would kill more than 10,000 people. The slow response of the World Health Organisation — sclerotic,...

https://unherd.com/thepost/chinas-coronavirus-will-not-be-the-next-black-death/

I'm doing a kind of self-audit. I didn't predict the pandemic, which I forgive myself for because few did, but nor did I say "this has the potential to be completely terrible" until it was obvious that it would be terrible (March 3) https://unherd.com/2020/03/stop-looking-for-coronavirus-super-spreaders/. So maybe a C+ grade?

Stop looking for coronavirus 'super-spreaders' - UnHerd

There are lots of bad and dangerous ideas circulating about contagious diseases

https://unherd.com/2020/03/stop-looking-for-coronavirus-super-spreaders/

in spirit of this https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/

Basically I don't think I got anything terribly wrong, but nor do I think I was exactly leaping ahead of the curve

A Failure, But Not Of Prediction

I. Vox asks What Went Wrong With The Media’s Coronavirus Coverage? They conclude that the media needs to be better at “not just saying what we do know, but what we don’t know”. This rai…

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/

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