Many are asking why COVID-19 numbers here haven’t hit the modeled “5000 by mid-April”.

Here’s why: You can’t confirm 5000 cases if you have only tested 2366 people. At the current rate of ~9% of tests being positive, you’d need to test ~55000 to get 5000 cases.

Testing!

Sawa?

EDIT: The actual tested figure is close to 10000. Redoing the math suggests that to yield those many confirmed cases we’d need closer to 250,000 people to be tested. Apologies for suggesting that the ministry has only tested 2366. They’ve done more. The testing math is my worry.