1/ Much of past IR theory dominated by game-theoretic models; hence #climatechange became a free-rider problem. Lots of present theory sees it differently. Conditional cooperation is not the main challenge.
2/ One of many excellent figures in @mmildenberger and @MichaelAklin’s work showing nations have acted on climate *irrespective of what other nations do*. Lots of evidence that states are not solely (or even mainly) conditional cooperators on climate. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3281045
4/ If carbon lock-in is the prob, we should worry less about free riding and more abt changing preferences & strategies of nations and other actors over time. We need pathways to change rather than compliance mechanisms
5/ Nordhaus climate clubs get willing participants to impose border adjustment tariffs on non-participants: slap a tax on imports from free riding nations.
6/ Nordhaus is correct to identify the prob w/ basing tariffs on carbon content of goods. This will quickly devolve into a mess of measuring emissions associated w/ diff goods, which is VERY difficult. See work by @MichaelWWara and @dcullenward on this.
7/ Instead, he suggests a uniform tariff (3%) and $25 carbon price. This is the sweet spot where non-participation costs > abatement costs. But c pricing does a lot of political work here.
8/ C pricing is a proxy for political commitments. But these can change. @mmildenberger's new book shows how c pricing has been a political football. When politics change, so does c pricing & that makes climate clubs less stable than models predict. https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/carbon-captured
10/ There is also the matter of whether there is sufficient political will among a small group of nations to implement such a scheme. Not clear there is. We need to think abt the incentives of club initiators https://www.nature.com/articles/palcomms201620
11/ Where does that leave us? Focusing on levers for domestic pol action (which vary greatly by nation) to create pressure and incentives for #decarbonization. Tech, learning, experimentation can all help open these pathways. But politics is the slow boring of hard boards. FIN
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