If you're wondering whether the models are a bit... crude.

Here's IHME's projections for Tuscany - it expects no more deaths within a week.

And the mean projection for cumulative deaths is significantly lower than the reported number from yesterday. Max projection is out too.

This from the newly launched http://www.covid-projections.com/  - which allows comparisons of the model's changing parameters.

(BTW worth remembering that there are significant numbers of unreported deaths.)

It's not just Tuscany. The model doesn't expect any COVID-19 deaths in Italy in a week's time.

And it's projection for total deaths will be exceeded when the latest reported death figures are announced tonight.

(Unless I've utterly misread and misunderstood.)

This thread explains what the tool does and doesn't do. https://twitter.com/yuorme/status/1250197642514219015