If you& #39;re wondering whether the models are a bit... crude.

Here& #39;s IHME& #39;s projections for Tuscany - it expects no more deaths within a week.

And the mean projection for cumulative deaths is significantly lower than the reported number from yesterday. Max projection is out too.

This from the newly launched http://www.covid-projections.com/ ">https://www.covid-projections.com/">... - which allows comparisons of the model& #39;s changing parameters.

(BTW worth remembering that there are significant numbers of unreported deaths.)

It& #39;s not just Tuscany. The model doesn& #39;t expect any COVID-19 deaths in Italy in a week& #39;s time.

And it& #39;s projection for total deaths will be exceeded when the latest reported death figures are announced tonight.

(Unless I& #39;ve utterly misread and misunderstood.)

This thread explains what the tool does and doesn& #39;t do. https://twitter.com/yuorme/status/1250197642514219015">https://twitter.com/yuorme/st...