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In a virtual event streamed by @GeiselMed on 7 April 2020, international epidemics expert Daniel Lucey discusses what’s known about the COVID-19 pandemic, lessons learned from previous epidemics, and what to expect in the coming months: https://geiselmed.dartmouth.edu/news/2020/covid-19-insights-from-an-epidemics-responder-video/
Anticipate, Recognise, ACT:“There are no ‘lessons learned’ except those proven by actions taken”
The SARS-Coronavirus-2/COVID-19 timeline in Dr Lucey’s presentation is sobering. He has a four-part mantra he refers to early on, the first part of which is…
“Go fast”
So. How fast did we go?
“Go fast”
So. How fast did we go?
19 Nov 2019, **before** SARS-Coronavirus-2 is known about, Dr Lucey is invited to give a talk at a UN webinar and decides to talk about ‘Lessons from SARS for the next rapidly spreading respiratory pandemic’
23 Dec, an invite for the webinar goes out to more than 200 people
Some time in the second-half of Dec 2019, Dr Li Wenjiang warns of a SARS-like contagious pneumonia
Dr Lucey becomes aware of this on 30 Dec and is concerned
Hong Kong CHP publishes their concerns **immediately** (and comprehensively 7 days a week since)
Dr Lucey begins writing updates about the new outbreak on 6 Jan
He is allowed to publish on the Infectious Disease Society of America blog on 7 Jan
He gives his presentation to the UN in NYC on 14 Jan, with considerable publicity material in the corridors of the venue
Throughout January, China’s CDC has been denying the rapidly spreading disease is contagious from person to person and continues to do so until…
On 20 Jan, they admit there are 14 healthcare workers infected
25 Jan, Dr Lucey questions whether SARS-Coronavirus-2 *might* predate December and have an origin other than the Wuhan seafood market
26 Jan, @sciencecohen interviews Dr Lucey and reports this hypothesis: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally
6 Feb:
Dr Li Wenjiang, who first alerted the world in December, dies of COVID-19, aged 34
Dr Lucey and a Georgetown University colleague publish ‘Coronavirus – unknown source, unrecognized spread, and pandemic potential’: https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/coronavirus-unknown-source-unrecognized-spread-and-pandemic-potential
