From a Labour perspective one of the big problems with “we won the argument” (on economics) is that just because people are left-wing, it doesn’t necessarily mean they vote Labour. In GE2019 half of left-wing voters *didn't* vote Lab. And nearly a quarter voted Tory. 1/7

I’ve defined “left-wing” as agreeing that “government should make greater efforts to make people’s incomes more equal”.

So what makes left leaning people vote Tory? Yes, Brexit was a factor, but views on how much they liked Johnson versus Corbyn were even more important. 2/7

This graph (of left-leaning voters only) shows that those who ended up voting Conservative were much more favourable towards Johnson than Corbyn despite their political beliefs. Those who voted Labour were much more favourable towards Corbyn. 3/7

This is true even when we split voters by support for Remain or Leave. This graph shows that Tory Remainers overall preferred Johnson to Corbyn. Leavers who voted Labour preferred Corbyn to Johnson and this was more important to their GE2019 vote than their Brexit preference.4/7

This thread from @DylanSpielman https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1249011654920228866?s=20 show how important perceptions of leadership and competence are. Even where voters politically agree with a party, if they don’t think the leader is capable of governing well, this can put them off voting for that party. 5/7

It’s hard for an Opposition to demonstrate competence, because they’re not governing and the leader is less visible than the PM. But voters will seize on evidence of incompetence, one reason why Labour’s failure to deal with anti-Semitism was so damaging. 6/7

In short, the fact that a lot of voters agree with Labour’s politics isn’t nearly enough to get into power. The new leadership needs also to demonstrate competence and professionalism or voters simply won’t trust the party. 7/7