[THREAD] Shane Duffy or Adam Webster: who’s the better centre-back?

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This is the biggest debate in terms of personnel under Potter this season.

Duffy has played just 41% of minutes this season, compared to 90.3% of minutes last season.

This thread will analyse:
- Defensive ability
- Ball-playing ability
- Errors
- Goalscoring

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Their radars demonstrate the considerable differences in their style of play, with Webster’s defensive output possibly underrated this season.

( @DyslexicDdue)

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Stylistically, they’re entirely different defenders - Duffy excels defensively whilst Webster’s strengths lie in ball playing.

Importantly, both are among the better CBs in the league for their specific traits.

( @Wyscout)

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Shane Duffy has the best aerial success rate of any outfield PL player this season (10+ 90s played), winning 80.8% of duels.

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Furthermore, no Brighton defender averages more clearances (8.66) or interceptions (1.68) per 90 minutes than Duffy this season

The question is, are Duffy’s defensive strengths enough to warrant playing?

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The idea that Webster ‘can’t defend’ is somewhat a myth:

- 45.8% tackle success
- 1.61 interceptions p90
- 6.16 clearances p90
- 4.24 aerial duels won p90

He’s second to only Duffy - and thus above Dunk - in all the p90 metrics.

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Webster has committed just 8 fouls this season - averaging one every 3 games.

He’s been dribbled past just 13 times - less than one per game.

That’s the lowest score in both metrics by and Brighton centre-back this season.

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Our style of play has completely changed this season:

• 54.2% possession a game compared to mid-40s last season

• 11th for aerial duels per game

A possession based system suits Webster a lot more than Duffy, here’s why.

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Webster is one of the best ball playing CBs in the league, and he’s been our top defensive ball progressor this season.

( @Wyscout)

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Adam Webster has carried the ball 4919 progressive yards this season, the most of any Brighton player by almost 1000 yards and the 12th most of any PL player.

He showed his ball-carrying strengths against Burnley for Maupay’s goal

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Comparatively, per 90, Shane Duffy only carries the ball 82 progressive yards, to Webster’s 220.

Duffy also plays almost half (1.85) the amount of progressive passes Webster plays (3.57).

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Ball-playing errors:

The more a player ball-plays, the more opportunity for errors.

Webster has made 3 errors leading to a shot this season, conceded 2 penalties and scored one own goal - no player has recorded higher in any of those metrics.

( @fbref)

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Duffy hasn’t made any errors leading to shots, conceded any penalties or own goals this season.

That said, in 17/18 he made 7 errors leading to shots and conceded 1 penalty, Dunk made 4 errors and scored 4 own goals - the PL can be tough to adapt to.

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The errors Webster made aren’t entirely reflective of his ability, either.

Potter is trying to implement a high-risk, high-reward possession based system which is reliant on risk taking - Webster has just been the person to make errors.

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We do average a higher points per game (1.13) when playing Duffy, compared to when playing Webster (0.91), and we have a worse net goal difference with Webster on the pitch compared to Duffy.

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Goalscoring threats:

Last season Duffy scored 5, our second top scorer + joint with VVD for goals scored by CBs.

This season, Webster has 4 goal involvements + has overachieved xG by 1.9, making him the most clinical Brighton player.

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Whilst Duffy offers you a lot of defensive security, he doesn’t offer anywhere as much as Webster does in an offensive sense.

It’s clear Potter has prioritised the latter, which makes sense for using Webster much more than Duffy.

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With that said, Potter has shown he’s prepared to change approach and concede possession in games.

He did so at Sheffield United this season, where Duffy excelled

https://twitter.com/albionanalytics/status/1231522064294645760?s=21

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To conclude:

• Webster HAS made errors, but that’s also due to the system he’s playing in

• Duffy could become a square peg in round hole, though he’s perfect for games where Potter sets up conservatively

• Webster deserves more ball playing praise than he’s got

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