I live in Charlotte, and I think the people of my home state need to really re-evaluate the whole #ReopenNC thing. I have some graphs that people need to understand.

Here's the first:

This is a graph of the daily increase in cases for NC based on the Johns Hopkins running totals. Notice that the peak in this graph is only three days ago, 4/10-4/11.

And the jump on 4/12 suggests that we may still be too early to really tell if this is a real downtrend.

We may not have even hit the peak of new infections yet, but the graph at least appears to open the door to that possibility.

IF we have reached peak new infections on 4/11, and we're beginning to come down the back slope of this, reopening now would be a HUGE mistake.

Given how much we've already sacrificed, it just doesn't make sense to me for us to jump the gun and reopen the state now when we're not even sure that we've passed the peak.

Here's a graph of total cases in NC to date

Notice that there is not even the appearance of a flattening to this curve yet, but there is a general slowing of the epidemic. The slope of the curve has shifted to the right, slowing since about mid-March, which is awesome to see.

And, in all honesty, I think we may be past peak new infections given the national situation. But it will take another 3-7 days to really see if this is a steady downtrend in new and existing cases, or a statistical hiccup that could spike again.

Assuming we are past peak infections, we should see peak deaths in about 2-3 weeks, and by mid-May we will be significantly lower, with probably 10% or less of the existing case count now (around 5200).

That's it. 4 more weeks and we will be effectively in control of this virus.

But that's only if we actually keep the measures THAT HAVE BEEN WORKING in place until mid-late May. If we start a blanket or wide scale relaxation of social distancing now, the situation will be much different.

If we do that, in mid-late May we'll see a second spike beginning to grow in the data, but this time with a much sharper acceleration curve.

And if that happens I don't think we'll be able to get this level of participation a 2nd time to control it.

A little bit of patience and perseverance now could be the difference between putting the brakes on this virus and simple being a speedbump.

I would hate to see the sacrifices already made wasted because we weren't willing to see it through. #ReopenNC #4MoreWeeks #COVID19NC