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In NYC there's usually ~5100 deaths from 3/11-4/13. This year: 18,551 deaths.
Poisson model results: we're seeing 13900 more deaths than we expect (95%CI: 13200 to 14700).
There were 6589 confirmed covid deaths, 3778 suspected covid deaths (adding these = 10367)
Poisson model results: we're seeing 13900 more deaths than we expect (95%CI: 13200 to 14700).
There were 6589 confirmed covid deaths, 3778 suspected covid deaths (adding these = 10367)
The number of 'excess deaths' exceeds the number of confirmed+suspected covid deaths by about 3000.
Excess mortality is a little abstract though, the number goes up when we think about covid deaths, including those that will never be reported,
Excess mortality is a little abstract though, the number goes up when we think about covid deaths, including those that will never be reported,
and deaths due to avoided medical care for non-covid causes, but goes down when we think about deaths due to air pollution or injury (the lockdown prevents these presumably).
Data here: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf
Mortality data for comparison from CDC WONDER, 2015-18, with monthly counts for Mar and Apr multiplied by .68 and .43 respectively
Mortality data for comparison from CDC WONDER, 2015-18, with monthly counts for Mar and Apr multiplied by .68 and .43 respectively
