When it comes to the dong, you never want to be short, right @DavidInglesTV https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1250236272251027458

Exhibit A of a strong dong:

Vietnam 10-yr government bond yields, wait for it, 2.2%, an indication that despite massive EM weakness, liquidity is rather decent & sticky FDI flows = less stress for Vietnam.

In contrast, IDR has been softer. Why?

Vietnam has a current account surplus & on top of that it has capital account surplus (FDI inflows for all this China diversification play even before trade-war & before the virus).

That makes it strong. Able to fund debt domestically. In fact, supply of VND debt shrinking.

IDR has strengthened as of late on risk-on, repo line, and USD issuance. Have u seen what it pays for 10-yr local currency issuance & also USD (much higher than what VN funds in LC).

Why? Excessive dependency on fickle portfolio flows. Plus, exports dependent on commodities.

So, as u know, in the dating world, hot dates can go cold, what you want is predictability & stability (boring I know but defo marriage material & that's what u want).

Fickle portfolio flows will leave u the moment u very much need it but not FDI. No no no. Totally committed!!!

So if u're a capital starved EM, u want FDI. And a certain kind of FDI (not all FDIs are equal, as u know from the dating world, predictability & stability aren't enough for marriage material).

Told u, solid investment thesis - long the strong dong. Maybe I went too far there