I recently wrote a paper modeling the spread of #COVID19. It's finally up! 1/n @GermsAndNumbers @Aaron_Horowitz @brookLYNevery1 https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1250162658281570304

In this paper, we use an epidemiological model (SEIR) to model the spread of #COVID19 within and between communities and jails. We use Allegheny County, PA as our model, but our findings are broadly applicable.

We find that under reasonable assumptions, we expect #COVID19 to spike hard and early in jails, much more so than in communities outside of the jail. The curve will be anything but flat in jails.

We also find that spikes of #COVID19 in jails have spillover effects. Disease travels easily between jails and the outside community-- spikes in the jail cause additional infections and deaths in the community.

Strategies like reducing arrests and expediting release will save the lives of many incarcerated people. They will also save lives and prevent suffering in the community at large. Preventing outbreaks of #COVID19 in jails is good for everybody.

Allowing preventable deaths and infections to occur in jails is wrong. Since tweets require succinctness, I've been saying "community" and "jail" as though they are separate. However, people in the jail are part of the community. We need to protect all community members.