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https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1250201276412985344">https://twitter.com/atrupar/s...
So, I’ve been working on something this week about the focus on Trump’s decision to implement travel restrictions on China, and the more research I do, the clearer it becomes that every expert on the planet knew that it wasn’t enough.
The tl;dr of everything I’ve been reading is that travel restrictions can be *somewhat* helpful at *delaying* a virus spreading, but isn’t really anything more than that.
A big part of the problem can be seen in the announcement of the travel restrictions itself. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/">https://www.whitehouse.gov/president...
The White House announcement 1. correctly noted that there were documented cases of person-to-person transmission, and 2. noted that the virus was already present in nearly 2 dozen countries, even among people who hadn’t been to China
So that right there acknowledges that stopping travel from China (even a complete restriction on anyone who had ever been to China) wouldn’t stop the virus from coming to the US.
A day earlier, the CDC put out a release confirming person-to-person transmission *in the US* https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0130-coronavirus-spread.html">https://www.cdc.gov/media/rel...
Anyway, back to the White House’s Jan 31 announcement:
It notes that there would be “enhanced entry screening” at 5 US airports. Just 5.
But also, the announcement explains how a failure to contain this could basically destroy our economy.
It notes that there would be “enhanced entry screening” at 5 US airports. Just 5.
But also, the announcement explains how a failure to contain this could basically destroy our economy.
And the airport screening has been either a.) insufficient, or b.) utter chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/politics/coronavirus-travelers-screening.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/1... href=" https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/16/ord-coronavirus-panic/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2... href=" https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/ohare-airport-isnt-screening-travelers-from-italy-or-south-korea-officials-say/2231733/
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca... href=" https://nypost.com/2020/03/23/travelers-shocked-by-barebones-coronavirus-screening-at-us-airports/">https://nypost.com/2020/03/2...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/politics/coronavirus-travelers-screening.html
Back to the White House announcement.
Here was Trump’s initial order:
- no US entry from people who had been in China, Hong Kong, or Macau in the 14 days before his announcement
Simple, right? Well...
Here was Trump’s initial order:
- no US entry from people who had been in China, Hong Kong, or Macau in the 14 days before his announcement
Simple, right? Well...
There were A LOT of exceptions to this. A lot.
And it’s not as though the virus would be like “oh wait, that person is an unmarried sibling of a US citizen or permanent resident under the age of 21, better not infect them because otherwise I’ll be traveling back to the US”
And it’s not as though the virus would be like “oh wait, that person is an unmarried sibling of a US citizen or permanent resident under the age of 21, better not infect them because otherwise I’ll be traveling back to the US”
For the most part, airport screening consisted of:
1. Taking temperatures of passengers returning
2. Handing passengers this card
1. Taking temperatures of passengers returning
2. Handing passengers this card
How effective were those temperature screenings? Not very. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-airport-temperature-checks/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/1...
From a study about the effect of the Wuhan shutdown:
“This delay provided extra time to prepare for the arrival of COVID-19 in more than 130 cities across China but would not have curbed transmission after infection had been exported to new locations from Wuhan.”
“This delay provided extra time to prepare for the arrival of COVID-19 in more than 130 cities across China but would not have curbed transmission after infection had been exported to new locations from Wuhan.”
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6105.full">https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...
From another study: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/13/7504">https://www.pnas.org/content/1...
Implementing travel restrictions from China seems like it was probably a good idea! BUT given that the virus was already here and spreading by that point, it wasn’t a solution, just one of what should have been many tactics that included contact tracing, widespread testing, etc.
It’s like if a fire started in your kitchen, but by the time you put it out, it’s already spread to your living room, and instead of addressing the living room being on fire, you just kept going, “But I put out the kitchen!” Eventually, the fire spreads to your whole house.
Basically, the whole thing is maddening.
