[CN: rape]
Doing some research into rape stats and common bugbears around them partly out of curiosity and partly suspicion that given the incredibly high rate of male rape, it shouldn't be hard to draw *some* conclusions.

In the UK there are an estimated 150,000 rapes a year, roughly. About 11,000 sexual offence prosecutions, all but ~180 of the latter are prosecutions of male perpetrators.

There was a jump in prosecutions of women that started around 2015/2016 which gender crits have alleged are the result of trans women self defining. But freedom of information act responses like the one below from 2016 seem to suggest that's not entirely plausible.

As indicated above, large metropolitan police forces started taking self definition in crime reporting in 2011 following on from the equality act, but in all the time up until the "spike" of women being prosecuted (shown below) there wasn't a single rape recorded as female perp.

Now onto another common claim by gender crits, also seen in the above FOI request, the number of female defendants prosecuted for rape (which as they say in the UK is strictly with a penis) even before self ID, was very much not zero.

I'm filtering the 2015 stats by sex/crime

There's a small rise in women convicted of involvement in rapes after the equality act came in (and prosecutions of women for sex offences generally), but nothing that looks statistically significant.

I'm not leading anywhere here particularly, still doing research and trying to find out what sort of supporting evidence there is for either perspective here, tbh.

To be 100% clear, this demonstrates so far that the claim that "women found guilty of rape = trans women" is false. There were a handful of cases each year before self definition, there remain a handful of cases each year afterwards.

Male rape prosecutions and convictions stay roughly even (rising slowly, but not spiking, 2015 seems to be a year of a crackdown on women sex offenders)
https://twitter.com/thatinterlace/status/1250193791908274177?s=19

They don't suddenly drop either with men all switching gender or something ridiculous if that's the question.

Something worth also bearing in mind is that going by male pattern statistics as a predictor, there should be about 1500 rapes by trans women per year, and tens of prosecutions. We've seen the media are hungry enough to cover one or two prosecutions for months in great detail.

(the media don't even remotely take as much interest in rapes otherwise unless there is celebrity gossip involved or the royal family. I'm not saying the media will be covering every trans rapist case, but I suspect they wish they could)

Flash forward from 2015 to 2018 and not much has changed - 186 sex offences prosecuted in total against female defendants.
Only 8 of those were rape, in line with a long record previously.

The bulk of the cases are sexual assault of women and CSA.

That crime "sexual activity" that covers 70 cases also covers an array of grooming offences and I'm wondering if maybe that is where some of the spike has come as police savvy up about online grooming activity.

None of this is definitive but so far there doesn't seem to be a smoking gun for a trans woman rape spree being covered up by police offender recording changes.

If anyone knows of a smoking gun in the ONS/MOJ stats I should be looking at I'd be grateful because tbh my first concern is trying to figure out what's really happening, which the press aren't really invested in doing accurately, and isn't entirely obvious so far.

Alternatively there must be some real criminologists whove at least some some competent back of an envelope maths on this stuff: where are they?

Policy is increasingly being driven be media knee jerk and not by people who actually understand the data we have

Props to the gender crit who managed to get West Midlands plod to read through every female rapist case file to confirm they were in fact an accessory to the use of someone else's penis though. https://twitter.com/Chican3ry/status/1250190264267952129?s=19

Not even kidding, folks who actually get off their arses to find answers and put them in the public domain are pretty helpful for this sort of research. It's better than yelling paedo at random trans strangers by far.

Actually I'll strengthen my claim on what the data should look like if Gender Crits were correct about trans women and "male pattern crime" -

Women offend, in general, at 20% of men's rate, and sexually at 1% of men's rate. Most female crime is retail theft and motoring offences

Trans women are in the region of half a percent of the population, or 1% of women.

For the "male pattern crime" hypothesis to be accurate alongside a spree of trans rapists recorded as female crime, we'd expect a doubling of female sex offences and a 4x female rape in particular

Also possibly a 5% bump in women's crime overall, but that'd be harder to see.

That pattern of increase predicted by the male pattern crime hypothesis is not present, and needs accounting for by people pushing it, either by the possibility that sex offences aren't being recorded according to self definition (we know that they are) or that the number of

trans woman perpetrated sex crimes is simply not in line with the hypothesis.

There are order of magnitude jumps that we ought to be seeing here that aren't apparent.

Anyway, feel free to rot your brain trying to work out what's true, I'm going to bed. Datasets are here

https://data.gov.uk/dataset/cbe9ff83-a459-444f-bc92-39dc70bbdec1/criminal-justice-statistics

I found the cause of that 69 case spike in 2015.

As I suspected - "sexual activity" crimes, usually crimes relating to grooming activity towards a minor.

Women seem to have not been liable to or recorded for them at all before 2015.

Ok, so that completely explains the 2015 spike and other than that there has been no suspicious increase in "female" rape the entire time police have allowed for self definition.

Case closed.

Or at least women have been liable for the crime but the police had so far been issuing a caution for a decade when they could be bothered to address grooming incidents at all rather than charging women via the CPS.

Hey, @thetimes, how's about I tidy this up and you pay me?

I'm kidding but if a real journalist wants to help get this published somewhere legit I'll happily help work on this in turn for a 50% cut being donated to @queercarenet

Final addition to this thread: here is the CPS press release celebrating the massive increase in sex offence convictions over the decade previous in 2017 once the jump had stabilised - a full 1/3 of those new convictions are for CSA which helps explain.

https://www.cps.gov.uk/cps/news/cps-report-shows-more-offenders-are-being-successfully-prosecuted-sexual-crimes-ever

See also this article from the year of the stepping up of prosecutions, putting it down also to improvements in the ways survivors of sexual assault were being treated. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/17/rise-sex-crimes-historic-cases-lord-chief-justice

I'm probably going to be accused of overplaying numbers of women committing sex offences if I don't say this even though the difference is about as blatant as it could possibly be - women are convicted for rape in the UK at 1/200th the rate of men. It is *generally* a male crime.

Last last additional data point - folks might notice that "activity" sex offences is most of the 2015 spike and wonder what the others were - in 2014 and 2015 there were two big increases in prosecution of Sexual Assault prosecutions for overall, including a handful of women.

The numbers are such that a single Karen White will contribute a lot to a single year's statistics, but so will a Rebecca Holloway or a Vanessa George - that's the reality of the offending rate for women being very low which is precisely why if the male pattern crime hypothesis..

.. worked out we would be seeing significant increases in very specific offences.