THREAD

This is HIGHLY irresponsible journalism, if we can even call it that in the first place. The article starts off by implying that if we keep things as they are, 206 million will be infected & 691,000 will die. This is DEEPLY misleading & designed to create panic. 1/N https://twitter.com/Mahim_Maher/status/1250086223017893888

Imperial's study makes projections based on demographics & income status. It accounts for 2 broad ways of tackling COVID-19, 1) mitigation, which is basically JUST social distancing, & 2) suppression, which means a more serious approach like public health measures & lockdown. 2/N

Now, the numbers @masroorhussnain chose to start his article off with are the ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO (if Pak had taken NO MEASURES WHATSOEVER & if it were business as usual). That means all schools/offices open, handshakes & hugs permitted like it was until January. 3/N

The only reason these numbers are included in the first place are to act as a baseline for the number of lives SAVED. The dictionary attached describes the parameters used in the study. The definitions I have highlighted will help you understand the data. 4/N

According to Suppression data, which is definitely OUR strategy, we could've experienced 73,000 deaths IF we'd implemented our suppression strategy after 0.2 deaths/100,000/week which comes out to 441 dths/wk for us. We implemented suppression at around 0.0009 dths/100,000/wk
5/N

So it's safe to say that we acted well in time, and if we don't change anything and this model is anything to go by, (which I wouldn't say it is), we should have much less than 73,000 deaths in total. 6/N

Now, to @masroorhussnain's credit, he did bury the 73,000 figure deep into the article in a corner of a graph but didn't bother explaining it, probably because he didn't understand the study in the first place, as demonstrated by this thread even though he's a "data analyst". 7/N

But the most interesting bit is that in conclusion, @masroorhussnain remarks the recommendations of the study are what Sindh govt has "pushed to adopt" so it's all good. "Testing. Isolating. Social distancing." is what all provinces are doing. Why mention Sindh like this? 8/N

Editor Samaa Digital @Mahim_Maher also announced that "Sindh govt is doing the right thing" which she defended (then quickly deleted) citing that she is a resident of Sindh and thus, is witness to the "good work" being done there. 9/N

But that doesn't explain why @masroorhussnain concluded the same in his article. Was he writing for Sindh only? Did Imperial provide Sindh specific projections? It is worth noting that Masroor is, in some unofficial capacity, associated with the Sindh govt. 10/N

Maybe his latest task was to paint a good picture of Sindh while the on-ground realities are starkly different, and @Mahim_Maher obliged. So, not only is the data being misinterpreted but a narrative is also being furthered through this article.11/N

Oops, that was quick. I guess I was being a troll.

Ahh yes, freedom of speech