Let's talk about Pakistan's response to COVID-19 for so much debate is going on. On one side there folks who understandably want to see the lockdown further tightened. Then there are those who look at the economic cost & poverty figures & argue against it. Understandable again.
We started the lockdown when governments around the world were moving in that direction. Now more and more economies are being brought back online. Lockdowns had clear purposes. To slow the transmission. To ensure there is enough medical capacity before infections peaked.
Another clever aspect was to embark on aggressive testing and isolating the infected so that the rest could resume their jobs without the fear of getting infected. So how has the country fared in that context. Testing remains woefully inadequate.
Punjab says it has brought the testing capacity to 3000 per day and might be able to increase the capacity to 10 thousand per day soon. Given that the province's population is above 10 million even at maximum 10k/day rate it will take ten thousand days to test all. Not happening.
As for the quarantine facilities Punjab has increased the capacity but still nowhere near the one needed to combat a full blown pandemic. While the number of ventilators has increased it is not enough. And that is case of the richest province. Elsewhere even lesser capacity.
And as time passes two things become clear. 1) we did not optimally utilize the period of the lockdown. 2) the window of opportunity for a sterner lockdown has passed. Consequently as we move to the softer version of lockdown many things are happening.
Barring any weather related miracle or any medical breakthrough I harbor no illusion about the fact that in due course the virus will reach you and me. As the workforce gradually returns to work it will need adequate masks. That are nowhere to be seen.
Governments will say that businesses should provide employees with the protective gear and businesses showing their balance sheets will ask the governments to do it. In the end provincial governments & federal will shift the blame to the other.
So among many things that are happening right now include some people arguing in support of herd immunity. I wish somebody could work on the numbers to show them how many will be infected and how many may consequently die before we reach the illusive goal.
Then there is the blamegame. These verbal clashes between various govts & parties should not be taken lightly. This is just a full dress rehearsal. For what is to come. Then you can see revolts by the clergy & the traders. Finally the argument other countries also couldnt stop it
Other countries may not have stopped infections altogether but they know where the pit ends. We do not. We don't have the data, the projections, the means to mitigate and the means to cure. So basically there is no comparison.
So what can the media, pundits & civil society do? Seek transparency & establish the chain of responsibility. The linkage between decisions, actions & consequences. When everyone is bent on doing their own thing we should at least know by the end of the day who helped & who didnt
Media especially will need more elaborate procedures to assess the actions and consequences. Right from how the virus entered the country to how it kept spreading. We need elaborate models. The ability to separate rhetoric from actions & policies.
If media cannot do that it will only undermine itself. Baqi, que sera sera.
Corrigendum: where I said model in reporting I meant formats. Media needs to develop elaborate formats for record keeping and eventually fixing responsibility.
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