@IHME_UW& #39;s latest Italy projection is 192 [85-385] deaths for today. There were 602 according to @Worldometers.
The total projected deaths are 21,130. There are already 21,067.
This model is BROKEN
The total projected deaths are 21,130. There are already 21,067.
This model is BROKEN
And it has been provably broken for days. From the 4/7 release (data inc. 4/5):
Italy Deaths
4/9 Proj. 380 [253-553] Act. 610
4/10 Proj. 338 [236-489] Act. 570
4/11 Proj. 293 [214-389] Act. 619
4/12 Proj. 257 [192-251] Act. 431
4/13 Proj. 224 [175-289] Act. 566
Italy Deaths
4/9 Proj. 380 [253-553] Act. 610
4/10 Proj. 338 [236-489] Act. 570
4/11 Proj. 293 [214-389] Act. 619
4/12 Proj. 257 [192-251] Act. 431
4/13 Proj. 224 [175-289] Act. 566
Good thread explaining the method used for the model and why this error is happening. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009?s=20">https://twitter.com/CT_Bergst...