@IHME_UW's latest Italy projection is 192 [85-385] deaths for today. There were 602 according to @Worldometers.

The total projected deaths are 21,130. There are already 21,067.

This model is BROKEN

And it has been provably broken for days. From the 4/7 release (data inc. 4/5):

Italy Deaths

4/9 Proj. 380 [253-553] Act. 610
4/10 Proj. 338 [236-489] Act. 570
4/11 Proj. 293 [214-389] Act. 619
4/12 Proj. 257 [192-251] Act. 431
4/13 Proj. 224 [175-289] Act. 566

Good thread explaining the method used for the model and why this error is happening. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009?s=20