The Italian region of Veneto has performed nearly *210k* tests out of a pop of 5m. It’s averaged 8k tests/day over the last week, and its daily positives are now in the 3-4% range. For additional data & observations on their approach, see https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">
cc: @Noahpinion @calculatedrisk

Cases have declined markedly over the last few days, but hospitalizations/case have been on a downward slope since late March (aggressive testing prob. plays a role, since it spots more asymptomatic or mild cases)

In Veneto, the share of hospitalized cases has been consistently lower than in neighboring regions. It& #39;s now down to 15% (in neighboring Lombardy, it& #39;s 40%)

Veneto dedicated a chunk of its large testing capacity to screen medical pros in hospitals & field. It& #39;s tested 2/3 of its frontline med staff (~31k people) with + rates of 2.5% Infections among med staff have been lower than in other regions (alas, comparative # no longer avl)

There’s a growing recognition in Italy that aggressive diagnostics and other elements of Veneto& #39;s approach (case separation in hospitals, home isolation and care, and tracing) has helped this region fare better. For my humble summary see: https://medium.com/@michelezanini/managing-the-pandemic-lessons-from-italys-veneto-region-4d1259091879">https://medium.com/@michelez...

Today (3/14) Veneto has begun to ease lockdown restrictions such as being able to walk beyond 200m of one’s home and allowing some retail stores to open. They believe that their diagnostic and tracing capacity will allow them to respond quickly in case new hotspots emerge.

Neighboring regions have all increased testing capacity, and while daily +s have generally declined, in regions like Lombardia and Piemonte they’re still in the teens/20s. Lack of reagents and other operational constraints limit catch-up (Veneto began preparing in February)

A high rate of +s suggests that a lot of undetected cases, and that the ones being detected are more likely to be serious and therefore require hospitalization. It& #39;s a bit concerning that hospitalizations per capita haven& #39;t declined much in Lombardy and Piemonte

These regions seem stuck on a persistent plateau, which means that predictions of a steep downhill descent like @IHME_UW& #39;s may prove overly optimistic. Let& #39;s hope the model is proven right in the coming days. /END