The number of coronavirus deaths in the UK passed 12,000 today. But the real figure is higher. We just don't know how much higher.

The death toll is bigger than reported, because UK figures exclude deaths in care homes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/care-homes-coronavirus-why-we-dont-know-true-uk-death-toll

with @niamh_mcintyre

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Elsewhere in Europe around half of deaths are in care homes: 54% in Ireland; 45% in France according to the latest figures. Germany's numbers are also inclusive of care home deaths.

Italy and Spain do not report deaths in care settings regularly (although estimates exist).

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On 3 April the government reported 4,093 Covid-19 deaths but ONS figures show the true figure was 52% higher.

Some of these deaths will have been included in subsequent daily reports but care home deaths are counted separately and never make it into the daily figures.

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Put simply, the big UK death toll you get every day is an undercount. But we don't know how big the discrepancy is and we may not know for some time to come.

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Links:

Today's DHSC figures: https://web.archive.org/web/20200414142623/https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Today's ONS data/briefing note:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

COVID-19 numbers in care homes in Europe:
https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-care-homes-early-international-evidence/?subscribe=success#blog_subscription-3

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