Tuesday: weekly thread looking live at 416 active listings (inventory). Four things to note on first chart:
1) Norm is to rise strongly into June
2) Freeholds have flattened while condos still growing a bit
3) Inventory still low compared to recent years
thread continues... /1

Condo inventory got so low in beginning of March was almost same as freehold. Can see diverged since. /2

This chart is subset of all active listings that are 1 week or less old. Again can see pattern is to rise slowly into early June. This year the regular pattern diverted last month (blue line) and we're seeing a lot less new listings. /3

This is 5th week in a row that Freehold "fresh" listings (green) have declined. The other aging bands have grown in this time, especially 30+ days on market (DOM). /4

For 416 Condos it's the 4th week in a row of less fresh (0-7 DOM) listings. Total condo listings in last 4 weeks are 9.3%, while Freeholds only 4.2% in same period. /5

I took my weekly look at 416 sales transactions yesterday. Condos and Freeholds both down about 75% over same week last year. Here's that thread, ICYMI:
https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1249732073444777988 /6

With inventory remaining stable (or slowly ), and sales , that means months-of-inventory (MOI) is going to rise. [MOI = Active listings / sales]
It represents number of moths would take to sell current inventory at current pace of sales. /7

If demand strong relative to supply you have a tight market and inventory sells quickly (seller's market). That's when you see a lot of bidding wars and high YoY price growth. If lots of supply and/or slow sales then inventory is turning over slowly (buyer's market). /8

Let's look back at 2017 (red line). Remember how wild the first few months of the year were? See MOI got as low as 0.6 in March? That's not just a seller's market - that's an EXTREME seller's market. Then April had gov't measures that cooled the market and you see MOI rising. /9

In March with that 0.6 MOI average condo prices were 31% YoY. Here's a look at freehold MOI. It got down to 0.8 MOI, extremely low. March avg freehold prices were 33% YoY. See how when the market cooled starting in April that MOI rose to 3.3 in July? /10

Well notice that prices went the OPPOSITE direction, i.e. as MOI rose, average prices fell. (Note average - not everyone's home fell by that amount, a lot has to do with mix of sales which went towards cheaper stuff.) /11

And even though a lot of people (I'd say most) think that a "balanced market" (i.e. doesn't favour buyers or sellers) is in the 4-6 month range, prices clearly even though MOI only rose as high as 3.3, which is still technically in seller's territory. /12

I think not just ABSOLUTE NUMBER you have to watch, but also the DIRECTION the MOI number is heading and HOW QUICKLY it's moving. 2017 moved quickly. /13

So what? Well MOI is on the rise again is so what (due to listings staying same but sales falling quickly).
Freehold MOI: Feb 1.4, Mar 1.4, today .
Condo MOI: Feb 0.9, Mar 1.1, today .
Condos have been below 2.000 in 47 of last 49 months so that's a big change. /14

So keep your out for that in MOI in the final April stats (might end up something like 2.8 and 2.4). And keep an eye on average prices. /15