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My analysis: #coronavirus likely to cause **largest ever** fall in global CO2 emissions in 2020
At ~1,600MtCO2 (~4%) wld be >> WWII, financial crisis…
…but even more wld be needed for 1.5C
AND it'd have 2b repeated every yr – not just one-off
THREAD
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
At ~1,600MtCO2 (~4%) wld be >> WWII, financial crisis…
…but even more wld be needed for 1.5C
AND it'd have 2b repeated every yr – not just one-off
THREAD
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
First, really impt to stress that looking at CO2 impact of #coronavirus is not the same as celebrating.
Almost everyone's affected by this terrible pandemic, in small ways & large, via friends, loved ones or only as a result of lockdown restrictions. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Almost everyone's affected by this terrible pandemic, in small ways & large, via friends, loved ones or only as a result of lockdown restrictions. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Second, #coronavirus is unprecdented. Things are changing fast & hard data is pretty sparse.
We should all heed @MFOslo quote in my piece and be "humble enough to know that I'm wrong" in any forecasts.
I am wrong too.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
We should all heed @MFOslo quote in my piece and be "humble enough to know that I'm wrong" in any forecasts.
I am wrong too.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Before the details, what does it all mean?
Getting to net-zero emissions to avoid dangerous climate change -limiting warming to 1.5/2C– will be incredibly hard.
We can't do it by crashing the economy; we need to break the link between GDP & CO2.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Getting to net-zero emissions to avoid dangerous climate change -limiting warming to 1.5/2C– will be incredibly hard.We can't do it by crashing the economy; we need to break the link between GDP & CO2.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
cont.New zero-carbon tech will help. But we must deploy existing tech rapidly, at scale. Efficiency 1st.
And individual action isn't enough. Behaviour change, yes, but also the places & policies to enable it.
Everything. All at once. Yesterday. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
What does it all mean?
Current emissions are huge…and China is big but it isn't everything.
China emits ~200MtCO2 a week
The US ~100Mt
India ~50
EU electricity ~16
A 25% cut in China for a month is only 2% for the year – and more like 0.5% globally.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-up-zero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china
Current emissions are huge…and China is big but it isn't everything.China emits ~200MtCO2 a week
The US ~100Mt
India ~50
EU electricity ~16
A 25% cut in China for a month is only 2% for the year – and more like 0.5% globally.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-up-zero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china
What does it all mean?
#coronavirus is temporary but CO2 is forever.
We've already put >2,000GtCO2 into the atmosphere.
Even if we cut global emissions this year by 10%, whoop, we only add another, what, 33GtCO2 in 2020 instead of 37GtCO2.
Go team!
#coronavirus is temporary but CO2 is forever.We've already put >2,000GtCO2 into the atmosphere.
Even if we cut global emissions this year by 10%, whoop, we only add another, what, 33GtCO2 in 2020 instead of 37GtCO2.
Go team!
What does it all mean?
Emissions aren't necessarily from where you think.
International aviation is only, what, 2.5% of global CO2? That's not a free pass for flying, but it is pause for thought.
Just one eg – cement – is WAY bigger, roughly 8%. https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change
Emissions aren't necessarily from where you think.International aviation is only, what, 2.5% of global CO2? That's not a free pass for flying, but it is pause for thought.
Just one eg – cement – is WAY bigger, roughly 8%. https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change
Anyway, enough philosophising from me. Let's get back to the data on #coronvirus, energy use and CO2 emissions.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Sure, there is loads of data out there:
* congestion stats
* electricity demand
* air pollution
* flight cancellations
etc etc etc
…but a lot of it is hard to translate into emissions https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
* congestion stats
* electricity demand
* air pollution
* flight cancellations
etc etc etc
…but a lot of it is hard to translate into emissions https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Apart from a lack of timely data, there's also the issue of attribution:
If CO2 falls in a given period, is it 100% due to #coronavirus or are other factors also at work? What about…
* weather
* existing trends
* 2nd-order effects eg oil price war https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
If CO2 falls in a given period, is it 100% due to #coronavirus or are other factors also at work? What about…
* weather
* existing trends
* 2nd-order effects eg oil price war https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
By last week, we felt there was enough data to look at how #coronavirus might affect global CO2 in 2020
We identified 5 sources covering ~75% of global CO2
CB analysis of China
ICIS on EU ETS
EIA STEO for whole US + global oil
India power data https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
We identified 5 sources covering ~75% of global CO2
CB analysis of ChinaICIS on EU ETSEIA STEO for whole US + global oilIndia power data https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
In each case, I tried to get a figure for how much CO2 is expected to fall *because of #coronavirus*
So eg in Jan20, EIA thought US CO2 would fall by 1.7% this year. In April it said 7.7%. So the covid-19 impact is -6%.
(Or is it…?! Pesky attribution!) https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1247825334789160961
So eg in Jan20, EIA thought US CO2 would fall by 1.7% this year. In April it said 7.7%. So the covid-19 impact is -6%.
(Or is it…?! Pesky attribution!) https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1247825334789160961
Similarly, EIA said in Jan20 that global oil demand would rise by 1.3Mbpd to 102Mbpd.
As of Apr20 it was saying demand would *fall* to 95.5Mbpd.
Delta = 6.5Mbpd
It's a bit messy but I collated all this in a spreadsheet & converted into CO2 emissions.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
As of Apr20 it was saying demand would *fall* to 95.5Mbpd.
Delta = 6.5Mbpd
It's a bit messy but I collated all this in a spreadsheet & converted into CO2 emissions.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
For India, @robbie_andrew has a great chart showing how electricity demand has taken a big hit, mainly cutting coal burn.
I took a simplistic approach assuming the 25% fall in demand (33% for coal) lasts 12wks, at coal fleet-avg of 0.9tCO2/GWh
~70MtCO2 https://twitter.com/robbie_andrew/status/1244923302637965314
I took a simplistic approach assuming the 25% fall in demand (33% for coal) lasts 12wks, at coal fleet-avg of 0.9tCO2/GWh
~70MtCO2 https://twitter.com/robbie_andrew/status/1244923302637965314
For China and the EU ETS, I took figures from @MFOslo for @ICISOfficial & @laurimyllyvirta analysis for @CarbonBrief, then took out an estimate for the oil component to avoid overlap w global oil
(I took oil out of US total too)
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/27/10487371/european-power-and-carbon-markets-affected-by-covid-19-an-early-impact-assessment https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter
(I took oil out of US total too)
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/27/10487371/european-power-and-carbon-markets-affected-by-covid-19-an-early-impact-assessment https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter
Adding all of those estimated #coronavirus impacts together I came to a 2020 global total of -1,600MtCO2.
That's a lot.
It'd be easily the largest ever annual fall.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
That's a lot.
It'd be easily the largest ever annual fall.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
One subtlety I tried to explain in the piece, but not in the chart, is that global CO2 emissions were expected to *increase* this year, before the #coronvirus crisis took hold.
This early draft chart attempted to make the point:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
This early draft chart attempted to make the point:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Other forecasts & new data keep coming out.
Just b4 we published last wk @RystadEnergy cut its oil demand outlook for 2020 to -9.4%
That would change my analysis significantly (see GIF)
A ~4% global #coronvirus CO2 impact becomes ~6% (!)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Just b4 we published last wk @RystadEnergy cut its oil demand outlook for 2020 to -9.4%
That would change my analysis significantly (see GIF)
A ~4% global #coronvirus CO2 impact becomes ~6% (!)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
Tomorrow, the @IEA is planning to publish its own latest forecast for global oil demand in 2020. Later this month it'll also have its own global CO2 forecast for the year.
I'll try to keep updating my story here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
I'll try to keep updating my story here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions
(I started – but never finished – a thread just after publication last week, so for reference here's a link back:
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1248255996142800896
Sign of the times – I was interrupted by childcare duties
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1248256000550998016
And Easter weekend weather wasn't conducive to work!)
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1248255996142800896
Sign of the times – I was interrupted by childcare duties
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1248256000550998016
And Easter weekend weather wasn't conducive to work!)
