A crisis is a wonderful time for political leaders to emerge. Which is what Ford is doing. Anecdotally, how many people have you heard say, I hate his politics but he’s done a good job? https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-my-uncomfortable-reality-doug-ford-is-the-leader-ontario-needs/

This is well established: crisis approval ends up becoming overall approval. We develop a singular focus, as has become abundantly apparent. We may be in our twitter echo chamber with long memories, but this isn’t the voting booth. Voters often forget and are not always rational

Covid and the economic rebuild will dominate the news cycle for the next two years. He has a clear edge. Many people will disagree here. Most political strategists will not. And I’m fine if people disgree. But do so with caution. Don’t assume Ford has caused too much harm.

If an election were tmmrw, who else would you even vote for? We’d split the left with liberal and NDP and he’d have another minority govt at least. Do I trust voters to remember his previous misdeeds? No, I don’t. They elected him once. And he was a known quantity then, also.

He’s backtracked on education, will walk away healthcare cuts, can easily blame LTC on the Libs, will spend on emerg planning, and his image will slowly be transformed. This government is opportunistic and it’s stupidity is selective. It is rebuilding it’s brand as you read this.

If you don’t know the playbook, you can’t run a good defensive scheme. The opponents offense has been very predictable so far. Our job is to line up in the right spots and anticipate the next play.

(I suppose I should offer a plan of attack if I’m going to suggest that the @OntarioPCParty has a path to a majority government. It involves recognizing the @OntarioNDP as the only opposition and allowing the @OntLiberal to disappear completely #onpoli #cdnpoli)