Morning after Wisconsin Supreme Court Election analysis thread follows.

Based on 100% precincts reporting using NYTimes vote report.

I include charts for both Karofsky & Kelly but most are just mirror images. Sometimes helpful to look at “your” candidate, so I do both. 0/n

Bottom line: Karofsky out-performed the 2019 liberal candidate almost everywhere, and Kelly underperformed the 2019 conservative candidate.

This was across the political spectrum of counties, so the outcome was not driven by a special set of places or turnout surges. 1/n

Absentee vote was extraordinarily high. We won’t have official details of absentees counted, but based on 4/13 data on absentees 71% cast an absentee, 29% voted in person.

No relationship between % absentee and vote for either candidate. WOW counties AND MKE & Dane high abs. 2/n

Turnout was way up for a court election: 1,548,504 vs 1,207,569 in 2019. This is 2nd highest court turnout since 2000.

But rising turnout was not related to vote for Karofsky or Kelly. 3/n

Which counties shifted the most? All but one moved in Karofsky’s direction compared to 2019.

We’ve seen smaller Republican margins in many of the SE Wisc counties that vote majority R but less so in recent years. That continues here. 4/n

While 71% voted absentee, there was a lot of variation across counties in the use of this option.

The special election in the 7th CD in May will be another test of how the absentee system works.

Note the top absentee counties are a mix of Dem and Rep counties. 5/n

Every county cast more votes than in 2019, but the surges in are mixed across places with some small places having big increases, and some large places rising but not phenomenally so.

We saw above turnout was impressively large, but increases didn’t favor either candidate. 6/6