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US Coronavirus Update for Monday, April 13, 2020
~ Positive trends continue
We track 6 core trends:
— Absolute increase of deaths
— Percent change of deaths
— Deaths compared to yesterday
— Absolute increase in cases
— Percent change of cases
— Cases compared to yesterday
~ Positive trends continue
We track 6 core trends:
— Absolute increase of deaths
— Percent change of deaths
— Deaths compared to yesterday
— Absolute increase in cases
— Percent change of cases
— Cases compared to yesterday
2/ On Mon, April 13, all 6 core trends moved in positive directions.
Fatalities First ~
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Mon, Apr 13: 23,604
• Increase in last 24 hours: 1,496 (+6.77%)
--> fewest new deaths in 7 days
--> rate of increase falls 10th day in a row (minus Tue)
Fatalities First ~
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Mon, Apr 13: 23,604
• Increase in last 24 hours: 1,496 (+6.77%)
--> fewest new deaths in 7 days
--> rate of increase falls 10th day in a row (minus Tue)
3/ And the absolute number of new deaths has fallen 3 days in a row:
New deaths, starting Apr 10:
• Fri: +2,021
• Sat: +1,813
• Sun: + 1,602
• Mon: +1,496
Perspective is important.
Just last Monday, US deaths hit 1,275 in one day—and that was the deadliest day for US.
New deaths, starting Apr 10:
• Fri: +2,021
• Sat: +1,813
• Sun: + 1,602
• Mon: +1,496
Perspective is important.
Just last Monday, US deaths hit 1,275 in one day—and that was the deadliest day for US.
4/ And we are above that striking psychological benchmark — 1 US death per minute for the day (1,440 deaths in 24 hours).
Yesterday, we had 62 US deaths an hour, more than one every minute Monday.
But compared to the deadliest run of days—Tue to Fri, last week, Monday was good.
Yesterday, we had 62 US deaths an hour, more than one every minute Monday.
But compared to the deadliest run of days—Tue to Fri, last week, Monday was good.
5/ The percentage change in deaths is also continuing to trend down.
The rate of increase has fallen at least 1 full percentage point, 3 days in a row.
That's particularly striking because percent increase is already so low — it's harder to drop 1 point at 8% than 18%.
The rate of increase has fallen at least 1 full percentage point, 3 days in a row.
That's particularly striking because percent increase is already so low — it's harder to drop 1 point at 8% than 18%.
6/ A reminder: The last two Tuesdays we have seen a spike in deaths relative to the trend of the previous days, as some record-keeping from the weekend catches up and is recorded.
That caveat isn't designed to be pessimistic — just a realistic sense of daily ups & downs.
That caveat isn't designed to be pessimistic — just a realistic sense of daily ups & downs.
7/ Now, cases.
• Total confirmed US cases, Mon, April 13: 581,679
• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 24,108 (+4%)
--> Number of new cases falls 6,352 compared to Sunday
--> With exception of tiny bump Sun (+0.44%), rate of increase in new cases down each day since Mar 30
• Total confirmed US cases, Mon, April 13: 581,679
• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 24,108 (+4%)
--> Number of new cases falls 6,352 compared to Sunday
--> With exception of tiny bump Sun (+0.44%), rate of increase in new cases down each day since Mar 30
8/ The actual rate of increase in new cases Monday, 4/13 was +4.32%.
At that rate, new cases take 17 days to double.
We have stolen all that insane exponential energy from the epidemic, for now, in the US.
Just two Mondays ago, cases were still doubling in less than 5 days.
At that rate, new cases take 17 days to double.
We have stolen all that insane exponential energy from the epidemic, for now, in the US.
Just two Mondays ago, cases were still doubling in less than 5 days.
