1/ Here is my take on some key underlying drivers of the timing of $TSLA Fremont re-opening, after some reading and poking around.

2/ A consensus is developing that shelter in place orders can be eased gradually, after active C19 cases drop low enough that available testing resources can be aggressively deployed to identify new infections, and then any new cases can be tracked and quarantined.

3/ That is why officials in San Francisco area said they need to see a sustained drop in new cases for 14 days before they can even think of easing orders. If there aren’t many new cases for 14 days, prior cases will resolve and there will be few enough active cases to track.

4/ Given that CA/OR/WA governors are sending the same message, I am going to keep a close eye on rate of new cases in SF area, CA, and OR/WA in that order. I don’t think flattening of new cases will be enough. I think we will need to see a steep and extended drop.

5/ A big drop in active cases is required, but not sufficient. Next I will be keeping an eye on statements about testing capacity on the west coast. How many tests can they do per day? How many do officials say they need?

6/ Next, it is important to keep in mind that developing a system for tracking cases is a significant undertaking. Who is going to do the tracking? What systems are they going to use? I think people need to be hired and trained, and systems need to be built.

7/ I think the mental picture one needs for a safe-to-ease paradigm is one where the system is tight. New cases are not widespread. New cases are quickly identified. New cases and their contacts can be quickly quarantined and tracked. People will need to be tested repeatedly.

8/ I think we are going to see a greater push for coordination. If the SF area is improving faster than CA, I am not sure SF would ease first. And I think there is a good chance CA/OR/WA will take steps together, which means the slowest to the finish line drives timing.

9/ Way down my list, but still relevant here is the fact that reopening decisions are becoming a partisan issue. Because DJT wants to re-open quickly, liberal politicians in CA will instinctively want to go the other way.

10/ Although I would be happy (from a personal standpoint) to be wrong, I agree with Morgan Stanley that it could very well be towards June before lockdown are eased substantially. https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1249275410837319680

11/ Once a decision is made to ease lockdowns, it is unclear what requirements will be eased first, and how gradually steps will be taken. I predict slow and risk-averse.

12/ While I think there is a good chance that manufacturers like $TSLA could be near the front of the line, this is far from certain, and there could be substantial strings attached (e.g., requirement that all employee work stations be 6’ apart). These strings could be painful.

13/ This is not investment advice, blah blah. Also, I am not judging the merits of public official thinking here, so please save your this-is-dumb comments for other threads. <end of thread.>