NEW
OBR will publish noon today illustrative scenarios on pandemic hit to UK GDP/deficit... we reported last week internally Gov looking at bigger end of Q2 hit ranging from independent forecasts of -7.5% to -24% GDP -average -14% -no precedent since 1921 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52232639

It’s NOT a forecast... but this could be quite important moment in terms of the economy: https://twitter.com/obr_uk/status/1249979667781685248?s=21

NEW:

OBR reference scenario

Is a Q2 fall in real GDP of 35%

Then bounce back...

Public sector borrowing at 273 billion (rather than £218bn) in this fiscal year of 14 per cent of GDP

LArgest single year deficit since WW2

SO:

Q2 = around -35%
Q3 = around +25%
Q4 = around +20%

Overall annual decline in GDP in 2020
- -13% - higher than world wars, GFC

Only 1920/21 compares

Similar impact seen in Q2 in France...

Here is the OBR UK output losses by sector from shutdown... really bad in construction, hotels & restaurants

Unemployment up to 10% - or up 2.1 million to 3.4 million, before settling at around 6%

All the key stats... on these extraordinary numbers from the OBR “reference scenario”: