Read on TwitterPress release by public relations firm BlacklandPR, presumably on behalf of Dr Simon Thornley et al.: https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE2004/S00106/expert-group-suggests-way-out-of-lockdown.htm
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Firstly, this article from the PR firm has ZERO links or references, & little detailed argument in support of its claims.
Even "Plan B" itself is not linked to. Does a document even exist that lays out the plan in a scientifically defensible way & as a basis for discussion?
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Even "Plan B" itself is not linked to. Does a document even exist that lays out the plan in a scientifically defensible way & as a basis for discussion?
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In place of substance, the document hopes to impress you with many titles+claims of expertise: an "appeal to authority"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
"Expert">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argu... Group"
"specially formed"
"local academics"
"public health experts"
"Dr"
"Senior Lecturer of Epidemiology at @AucklandUni
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
"Expert">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argu... Group"
"specially formed"
"local academics"
"public health experts"
"Dr"
"Senior Lecturer of Epidemiology at @AucklandUni
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Next they set a up a "straw-man argument",
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
In">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stra... the text below, they purport that the Govt& #39;s current plan ("Plan A") relies on a "prolonged lockdown".
(This is a FALSE claim, see next tweet.)
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
In">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stra... the text below, they purport that the Govt& #39;s current plan ("Plan A") relies on a "prolonged lockdown".
(This is a FALSE claim, see next tweet.)
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Irl, & contrary to the claims of this document, NZ Govt& #39;s Plan A aims to get NZ out of lockdown, "as quickly as possible". -- @AshBloomfield
Below, Dr Bloomfield & Sir David Skegg in submissions today to NZ Parliament& #39;s Epidemic Response Committee. https://vimeo.com/405660769
5/n">https://vimeo.com/405660769...
Below, Dr Bloomfield & Sir David Skegg in submissions today to NZ Parliament& #39;s Epidemic Response Committee. https://vimeo.com/405660769
5/n">https://vimeo.com/405660769...
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Dr Thornley & his specially formed group have discovered the "real threat of the virus".https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> This passage is required reading for anyone who had thought the virus& #39;s threat was sickening & killing people.6/n" title="https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤯" title="Exploding head" aria-label="Emoji: Exploding head"> Dr Thornley & his specially formed group have discovered the "real threat of the virus".https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="White heavy check mark" aria-label="Emoji: White heavy check mark"> This passage is required reading for anyone who had thought the virus& #39;s threat was sickening & killing people.6/n" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Here, Dr Thornley is making the distinction between "unnecessary deaths" & the purported & #39;necessary deaths& #39; of his plan which -- see later tweets -- runs into tens of thousands of NZers.
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The next paragraph alludes to the & #39;mystery of the comorbidities& #39;.
In Italy & elsewhere, huge numbers of people are suddenly dying from high blood pressure, obesity, etc. -- often when their lungs fill up fluid. (And coincidentally testing +ve for the COVID-19 coronavirus.)
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In Italy & elsewhere, huge numbers of people are suddenly dying from high blood pressure, obesity, etc. -- often when their lungs fill up fluid. (And coincidentally testing +ve for the COVID-19 coronavirus.)
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“If you jump off a cliff your likelihood of dying is the same as your average likelihood of dying in the next 50 years anyway."
"It& #39;s just squeezing your life’s mortality risk into a few seconds."
NZers may as well die now as later.
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Aka: why not jump off a cliff?“If you jump off a cliff your likelihood of dying is the same as your average likelihood of dying in the next 50 years anyway.""It& #39;s just squeezing your life’s mortality risk into a few seconds."NZers may as well die now as later. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷" title="Person shrugging" aria-label="Emoji: Person shrugging">9/n" title="https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤯" title="Exploding head" aria-label="Emoji: Exploding head"> Aka: why not jump off a cliff?“If you jump off a cliff your likelihood of dying is the same as your average likelihood of dying in the next 50 years anyway.""It& #39;s just squeezing your life’s mortality risk into a few seconds."NZers may as well die now as later. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷" title="Person shrugging" aria-label="Emoji: Person shrugging">9/n" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Next paragraph disputes NZ Govt& #39;s Plan A of & #39;elimination& #39;, as also championed by e.g. Prof Skegg.
Strangely, it acknowledges elimination was a "sensible" plan at start of NZ lockdown but allegedly "the data is now clear" it no longer is.
What data, though? It doesn& #39;t say.
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Strangely, it acknowledges elimination was a "sensible" plan at start of NZ lockdown but allegedly "the data is now clear" it no longer is.
What data, though? It doesn& #39;t say.
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Finally, we learn what Plan B is. It& #39;s an immediate shift to ~Level 2 after the initial 4 weeks of current Level 4 (so April 23).
Note that Govt is aiming for ~Level 2 soon anyway - see tweet 5. Difference is Thornley et al. want to go there while the virus is still in NZ.
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Note that Govt is aiming for ~Level 2 soon anyway - see tweet 5. Difference is Thornley et al. want to go there while the virus is still in NZ.
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At the end of the paragraph though, the stated motivation for their Plan B makes no sense whatsoever.
They claim it& #39;s to prevent stress on NZ& #39;s health system.
How can it be that letting the COVID-19 virus stay in NZ is easier on our health system than eliminating it?!
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They claim it& #39;s to prevent stress on NZ& #39;s health system.
How can it be that letting the COVID-19 virus stay in NZ is easier on our health system than eliminating it?!
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Next is 10 bullet points giving Plan B in more detail.
It& #39;s instructive to see what is included & what is left out ...
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It& #39;s instructive to see what is included & what is left out ...
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Plan B has no social distancing aside from banning gatherings of more than 100 people.
No 2-metre rule, or even encouragement. No surface cleaning. It& #39;s all down to hand-washing (which is what Boris Johnson was very good at, remember).
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No 2-metre rule, or even encouragement. No surface cleaning. It& #39;s all down to hand-washing (which is what Boris Johnson was very good at, remember).
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Medical professionals in particular are encouraged to wash their hands. Surely they will be so grateful to Dr Thornley for that expert advice! 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">
Especially when NZ& #39;s hospital wards fill up with COVID-19 patients because, yes, that& #39;s what Plan B is actually aiming for ...
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Especially when NZ& #39;s hospital wards fill up with COVID-19 patients because, yes, that& #39;s what Plan B is actually aiming for ...
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Especially when NZ& #39;s hospital wards fill up with COVID-19 patients because, yes, that& #39;s what Plan B is actually aiming for ...15/n" title="Medical professionals in particular are encouraged to wash their hands. Surely they will be so grateful to Dr Thornley for that expert advice! https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">Especially when NZ& #39;s hospital wards fill up with COVID-19 patients because, yes, that& #39;s what Plan B is actually aiming for ...15/n" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
But first - given Plan B& #39;s stated goal (tweet 12) of "preventing stress on the health system" - obvious reminder that COVID-19 hits like hell on medical workers & hospitals.
E.g. hospitals were "the main” source of COVID-19 transmission in Bergamohttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇹" title="Flag of Italy" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Italy">
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171217/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-hospitals
16/n">https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10...
E.g. hospitals were "the main” source of COVID-19 transmission in Bergamo
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171217/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-hospitals
16/n">https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10...
Now go to the end of the paragraph of tweet 7 to see that Plan B intends to fill up NZ& #39;s hospitals with COVID-19 patients.
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What is the scale of NZ deaths if they do this?
Rough calculation, assume (all iirc):
o squeeze point is ventilators/ICU
o 530+ vents in NZ
o 1/2 vented patients die anyway
o ~1 case/week turnover in ICU
So Plan B is up to 530+/2~hundreds of COVID-19 deaths/week of NZers.
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Rough calculation, assume (all iirc):
o squeeze point is ventilators/ICU
o 530+ vents in NZ
o 1/2 vented patients die anyway
o ~1 case/week turnover in ICU
So Plan B is up to 530+/2~hundreds of COVID-19 deaths/week of NZers.
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So hundreds of deaths/week, & how long for?
Maybe years. (Same paragraph as tweet 10)
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Maybe years. (Same paragraph as tweet 10)
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Plan B is even hoping for *HERD IMMUNITY* - when COVID-19 has run through the NZ population until, speculatively, most NZers retain antibodies & the virus can no longer spread.
NZ herd immunity is the obvious inference of the last of the bullet points shown in tweet 13.
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NZ herd immunity is the obvious inference of the last of the bullet points shown in tweet 13.
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Herd immunity would likely mean 10s thousands of NZ deaths from COVID-19.
Rough calculation, assume:
o 60% NZers exposed to virus (tech: 1-1/Rt, Rt~2.5)
o 1% infection fatality rate
o pop 5M
Total NZ deaths ~ 0.6 x 0.01 x 5M ~ 30,000
So Plan B ~up to as bad as PM warned:
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Rough calculation, assume:
o 60% NZers exposed to virus (tech: 1-1/Rt, Rt~2.5)
o 1% infection fatality rate
o pop 5M
Total NZ deaths ~ 0.6 x 0.01 x 5M ~ 30,000
So Plan B ~up to as bad as PM warned:
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Finally, the last paragraph of the PR piece is the founding members of the special group who are proposing Plan B for NZ& #39;s #covid19nz response
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So we know the founding members but what we don& #39;t know is the *funding members* who paid for this PR piece. #nzpol
23/23 https://twitter.com/2covet/status/1250007672906121217">https://twitter.com/2covet/st...
23/23 https://twitter.com/2covet/status/1250007672906121217">https://twitter.com/2covet/st...
Stinky!
Besides top PR firm (Ogilvy affiliate), #covid19nz "Plan B" group has its own professional website, a youtube channel & even its own logo.
Contact them equally thru lead academic or PR firm.
Obv Plan B is seeking oxygen thruhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💰" title="Money bag" aria-label="Emoji: Money bag"> regardless of health science merit.
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Besides top PR firm (Ogilvy affiliate), #covid19nz "Plan B" group has its own professional website, a youtube channel & even its own logo.
Contact them equally thru lead academic or PR firm.
Obv Plan B is seeking oxygen thru
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regardless of health science merit.24/n" title="Stinky!Besides top PR firm (Ogilvy affiliate), #covid19nz "Plan B" group has its own professional website, a youtube channel & even its own logo.Contact them equally thru lead academic or PR firm.Obv Plan B is seeking oxygen thru https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💰" title="Money bag" aria-label="Emoji: Money bag"> regardless of health science merit.24/n" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
