FWIW here is a point-by-point debunking of this steaming pile of PR spin. #COVID19nz

Press release by public relations firm BlacklandPR, presumably on behalf of Dr Simon Thornley et al.: https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE2004/S00106/expert-group-suggests-way-out-of-lockdown.htm

1/n https://twitter.com/CrowdvBank/status/1249924506577059842

Firstly, this article from the PR firm has ZERO links or references, & little detailed argument in support of its claims.

Even "Plan B" itself is not linked to. Does a document even exist that lays out the plan in a scientifically defensible way & as a basis for discussion?

2/n

In place of substance, the document hopes to impress you with many titles+claims of expertise: an "appeal to authority"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

"Expert Group"
"specially formed"
"local academics"
"public health experts"
"Dr"
"Senior Lecturer of Epidemiology at @AucklandUni

3/n

Next they set a up a "straw-man argument",
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man 

In the text below, they purport that the Govt's current plan ("Plan A") relies on a "prolonged lockdown".

(This is a FALSE claim, see next tweet.)

4/n

Irl, & contrary to the claims of this document, NZ Govt's Plan A aims to get NZ out of lockdown, "as quickly as possible". -- @AshBloomfield

Below, Dr Bloomfield & Sir David Skegg in submissions today to NZ Parliament's Epidemic Response Committee. https://vimeo.com/405660769 

5/n

Dr Thornley & his specially formed group have discovered the "real threat of the virus".

This passage is required reading for anyone who had thought the virus's threat was sickening & killing people.

6/n

Here, Dr Thornley is making the distinction between "unnecessary deaths" & the purported 'necessary deaths' of his plan which -- see later tweets -- runs into tens of thousands of NZers.

7/n

The next paragraph alludes to the 'mystery of the comorbidities'.

In Italy & elsewhere, huge numbers of people are suddenly dying from high blood pressure, obesity, etc. -- often when their lungs fill up fluid. (And coincidentally testing +ve for the COVID-19 coronavirus.)

8/n

Aka: why not jump off a cliff?

“If you jump off a cliff your likelihood of dying is the same as your average likelihood of dying in the next 50 years anyway."

"It's just squeezing your life’s mortality risk into a few seconds."

NZers may as well die now as later.

9/n

Next paragraph disputes NZ Govt's Plan A of 'elimination', as also championed by e.g. Prof Skegg.

Strangely, it acknowledges elimination was a "sensible" plan at start of NZ lockdown but allegedly "the data is now clear" it no longer is.

What data, though? It doesn't say.

10/n

Finally, we learn what Plan B is. It's an immediate shift to ~Level 2 after the initial 4 weeks of current Level 4 (so April 23).

Note that Govt is aiming for ~Level 2 soon anyway - see tweet 5. Difference is Thornley et al. want to go there while the virus is still in NZ.

11/n

At the end of the paragraph though, the stated motivation for their Plan B makes no sense whatsoever.

They claim it's to prevent stress on NZ's health system.

How can it be that letting the COVID-19 virus stay in NZ is easier on our health system than eliminating it?!

12/n

Next is 10 bullet points giving Plan B in more detail.

It's instructive to see what is included & what is left out ...

13/n

Plan B has no social distancing aside from banning gatherings of more than 100 people.

No 2-metre rule, or even encouragement. No surface cleaning. It's all down to hand-washing (which is what Boris Johnson was very good at, remember).

14/n

Medical professionals in particular are encouraged to wash their hands. Surely they will be so grateful to Dr Thornley for that expert advice!

Especially when NZ's hospital wards fill up with COVID-19 patients because, yes, that's what Plan B is actually aiming for ...

15/n

But first - given Plan B's stated goal (tweet 12) of "preventing stress on the health system" - obvious reminder that COVID-19 hits like hell on medical workers & hospitals.

E.g. hospitals were "the main” source of COVID-19 transmission in Bergamo
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171217/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-hospitals

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Now go to the end of the paragraph of tweet 7 to see that Plan B intends to fill up NZ's hospitals with COVID-19 patients.

17/n

What is the scale of NZ deaths if they do this?

Rough calculation, assume (all iirc):
o squeeze point is ventilators/ICU
o 530+ vents in NZ
o 1/2 vented patients die anyway
o ~1 case/week turnover in ICU

So Plan B is up to 530+/2~hundreds of COVID-19 deaths/week of NZers.

18/n

So hundreds of deaths/week, & how long for?

Maybe years. (Same paragraph as tweet 10)

19/n

Plan B is even hoping for *HERD IMMUNITY* - when COVID-19 has run through the NZ population until, speculatively, most NZers retain antibodies & the virus can no longer spread.

NZ herd immunity is the obvious inference of the last of the bullet points shown in tweet 13.

20/n

Herd immunity would likely mean 10s thousands of NZ deaths from COVID-19.

Rough calculation, assume:
o 60% NZers exposed to virus (tech: 1-1/Rt, Rt~2.5)
o 1% infection fatality rate
o pop 5M

Total NZ deaths ~ 0.6 x 0.01 x 5M ~ 30,000

So Plan B ~up to as bad as PM warned:

21/n

Finally, the last paragraph of the PR piece is the founding members of the special group who are proposing Plan B for NZ's #covid19nz response

22/n

So we know the founding members but what we don't know is the *funding members* who paid for this PR piece. #nzpol

23/23 https://twitter.com/2covet/status/1250007672906121217

Stinky!

Besides top PR firm (Ogilvy affiliate), #covid19nz "Plan B" group has its own professional website, a youtube channel & even its own logo.

Contact them equally thru lead academic or PR firm.

Obv Plan B is seeking oxygen thru regardless of health science merit.

24/n