BREAKING: New study shows NY COVID-19 positive rate may be 15%.

87% asymptomatic. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

First of all apologies for the caveats. One study. Pregnant women only. A point in time. Only in NY.

As all good studies do, begets more questions than answers.

And others certainly may have better interpretations than my own. 2/

The asymptomatic rate— if supported by other data (sorry I’m going to keep qualifying)— appears to be good news.

Not because it implies a lower case fatality rate— because the % is irrelevant, the number of lives lost are all that matters. 3/

It’s also not great that it’s so invisible and spreads among so many carriers who don’t know they have it. That’s a real danger to those to whom this is lethal. 4/

But of course it means herd immunity would be achieved more quickly.

If you assumed that all asymptomatic people had a positive test & no asymptomatic ones have, this would imply something like 5mm people have been infected (2% of the country). 5/