"They're dying WITH Covid-19 but we don't know that they're dying OF it."

Let's walk through this. (Thread)

In New York state from the fall 2015 through the end of 2019, CDC weekly stats show:

- 1,941 average deaths from all causes
- 1,711 in the lowest week (in June 2016)
- 2,493 in the highest week (in January 2018)

Last week, the state reported 4,694 deaths with Covid-19.

Reporting indicates 1000s dying weekly in NY state above normal rates at home, on the streets, and in hospitals, most not tested for Covid-19.

But let's set that aside and assume that there is no undercounting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html

Is it possible that all or most of those 4,694 people did WITH coronavirus but not OF it? That would mean that Covid-19 did not hasten their deaths: those people all would have died that week anyway.

Even if you take the worst week on recent record (2,493 deaths), assume last week was that again, and all of them — even car crash victims, suicides, gun deaths — happened to have Covid-19 and died with but not of it, you'd still have nearly as many deaths, 2,200+, unexplained.

On the most generous, thought-experimental assumptions, you just cannot get the numbers anywhere close to working. "With but not of" Covid-19 is not a serious engagement with what we're seeing. (end thread)