Pursuant to 22USC2593a NLT April 15 of each year the President via the Secretary of State to whom the report is delegated shall submit to Congress the Annual Report on Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments ./1

This is the annual "Compliance Report." The Trump Administration is reportedly looking to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. To date, only Russian press has alleged new compliance issues raised by the US with respect to Russia not found in previous Compliance Reports./2

I will not speculate on why Russia may have opted to do so before the report came to Congress, but I will wait on my own government to decide what to do, and say, here in the open before opining. That means I won't answer DMs until I see the public report from the State Dept./3

There is now an observable US-Russian set of kabuki to go with this report, given mounting, significant, sustained and widespread Russian noncompliance with its obligations. These Russian choices must suffer serious consequences, up to and including US withdrawal from treaties./4

As a specific matter, not having access and not having seen a US report or reply on Open Skies, I have no basis, to date, for endorsing an American decision to leave the treaty. It is my view, as a policy-making matter, that if you are going to withdraw, you must declassify./5

I understand sharing classified information with Allies happens, but given that Open Skies is a multilateral treaty, withdrawal while there is doubt or if there is lingering disagreement with them means Russia can take advantage of that, and of our silence on details./6

Not saying you have to please everyone. Not saying POTUS cannot withdraw for any reason, even if just having a bad day (he can). Am saying that if you want credibility to obtain to your actions as a government, it's pretty clearly incumbent on you to lay it all out, if you can./7

We've had to make much of this up as we went along. The record of decision on these matters is fragmented, political and, in a word, fraught. There's no how-to manual. But if by simple accumulation we've done severe damage by reacting too late (INF) or too harshly, we're wrong./8

Because neither serves the interest of the United States of America fundamentally at stake in INF or Open Skies. Interests change, for sure. Nothing is forever. But we must be careful not to pay Russia's compliance bills with US credibility./-9-FIN

PS --
The founder of a very distinct discipline of verification himself was and is my guide in these matters. I hope he'd agree with this thread. And yes, it was a very long one. Caution needs space. Policy is a subtle art.

PPS
Not that I make policy, of course.
So perhaps best to strike "policy" and insert "sense"?
-TM-