I keep seeing people who think we might open up soon... maybe in May.

Here in SD, we just hit 2% growth rate. I give it a couple of days before we hit zero growth.

But this growth rate is the result of lockdown three weeks ago or more.

/1

Each case we have active right now can still infect people. So we won't get to no cases until all current cases (which can last three weeks or so) are over and *haven't infected anyone*.

Any new case restarts that clock.

The graphs show the result of that.

/2

Growth is slowing because lockdown means that cases can't spread *as much*. But they still spread a little. The longer the lockdown, the more growth gets choked off.

Eventually, growth drops to zero. But from there, you have three more weeks for the last case to infect.

/3

And then, to be utterly safe, you have three more weeks to make *sure* they didn't start a new case on the last day.

So you could open up then? Sure, if you build a bubble around San Diego county.

But if *any new case comes in from elsewhere* you start over.

/4

One case, and you're back open, and you get back to the 100 cases at the start of that graph in a matter of days.

And then you have to lock down all over again.

You could test every person who entered the county, if you built checkpoints.

/5

You could issue certificates to anyone who is immune, if you could test for immunity, and let them move freely.

You could do temperature checks at every building entrance.

None of these sound like "opening up" to me, nor probably to you.

We are not opening up in May.

/6

Or rather, some might open up, then they will just get on this curve all over again, and then they will shut down, just more people will have died.

This is not a situation for a few months. This is "maybe we will be back to normal in 2021."

/7

"But the economy!"

Yes. It will be bad. Stop looking for solutions to "go back to normal."

Normal is dead.

Start looking for solutions to "make the new normal work."

Your hopes should be pinned on therapies, not opening up. Not even on a vaccine, for for a long time.

/8

And bear in mind therapies still means "people still get sick, just less people die."

This is the largest event in your lifetime. It is our World War, our Great Depression. We need to rise the occasion, and think about how we change. There is no retreat to how it used to be.

/9

There is only through. It will take grit, and sacrifice, and reinvention.

A re-evaluation of our principles and our practices. New forms of business, new forms of society. The virus doesn't care about your old ideals.

No going back. There is only through.

/fin

Actually, some PS's because I keep seeing specific arguments being made:

1) "But we've had so few deaths! It's not that bad."

The only reason it is as good as it is is because of lockdown. If you didn't have lockdown, that orange line would have stayed at 40% growth every day.

And yes, that *would* have been as bad as people were saying. How bad? Bodies in the streets bad. Bad you have never seen.

2) "Young people don't get it, send them back to work!"

Only if you assume no young people have diabetes, high blood pressure, etc. Or live with anyone who does.

This spreads *in houses* more than anywhere else. One person sent out who catches it means the house catches it.

Do you even know the percentage of the younger public with hypertension and diabetes btw? Not good.

3) "You're not an epidemiologist!"

Correct, and neither are the people saying we can open back up. But I can run some basic math at an 8th grade level and probably so can you.